Analysts estimate that Halloween sales are expected to increase

SALT LAKE CITY – The vigor of the economy can help local partygoers enjoy more treats than surprises this eve of Allhallows.

According to IHS Markit, a London-based, London-based global information and analytics provider, Americans are expected to spend billions of dollars on Halloween candy, costumes, and other gruesome products. According to David Deull, an economist at IHS Markit, spending on candy for Halloween is expected to increase by 4.2%, up more than 2.4% from last year.

"We expect Americans to spend $ 2.5 billion on Halloween candy purchases this year, which is $ 20.10 per household," he said.

Halloween candy prices in October are expected to rise as sugar prices soar, he added. The price increases for derivatives were "scary" between 2005 and 2011, increasing by more than 2% per year, he noted. However, sweets inflation was only 1% or less in five of the six years between 2012 and 2017, he said.

"Since two Halloweens, candy prices have been under water – much to the delight of little witches, goblins and ghosts," said Deull. "We are forecasting a rise in Halloween candy prices.The world price of raw sugar has swelled by 40% over the past month, partly due to the decline in Brazilian production."

In addition, large stocks of cocoa beans put downward pressure on cocoa bean prices in the third quarter, he noted. All in all, IHS Markit expects an increase in the price of candy for Halloween of only 0.5% from one year to another, which is not too scary, he said.

"If you factor in the inflation rate (2.1%) (in 2017), it will cost less in real terms than last year," said Jeff Steagall, Dean of the John Goddard School. of Business & Economics from Weber State University. "In the big budget of your monthly budget, Halloween candies do not represent a very big expense, so even if the price increases dramatically, it does not cost you much to buy it."

He noted, however, that an increase in costume prices could potentially affect consumer spending. But even then, party-goers are likely to shell out a few extra bucks to create a costume to take advantage of the opportunity, especially since spending is not usually exorbitant, he said.

"It's a lot of fun for not-so-high expenses," Steagall said. "A few extra bucks for Halloween candy and another $ 10 or $ 20 spent on costumes and makeup, it's not that bad."

Deull said the growth in candy spending over the last few years had been rather volatile, noting that it had been moderately depressed in 2012 and 2013 due to mitigating factors, notably Sandy Hurricane in 2012 and a federal government closure next year. Spending on Halloween candy jumped in 2014, registering an increase of 6.4% while that of the following year was only 3.1%.

At the 2016 release, a 1.2% drop in candy prices significantly increased spending, up 7.6% from the previous year, he said.

"It was another hard act to follow and the 2.4% increase in 2017 was not a big deal," he said.

According to Deull, spending on Halloween candy should be supported by increased consumer confidence, strong labor markets and growth in real disposable income. However, he also noted that several headwinds have recently emerged, including stock market volatility and slow gasoline prices that could potentially affect consumer confidence.

Despite these concerns, positive forces should push Americans to indulge in more treats this year despite the slight rise in prices for Halloween candies, he said.

"We expect a spirited increase of 4.2% in candy spending for Halloween, bringing the total to $ 2.5 billion," said Deull. "This year, the cost of a treat is increasing, but consumers are not scared."

High consumer confidence and strong growth in disposable income mean that consumers will fall for sweet treats during the holidays, he said.

"If candies remain popular and people still have a sweet taste, then that $ 2.5 billion will continue to grow," said Deull. "How much is another question."