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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – One of the first things Joe Bryant did when I went home was to hand me his Republican Party card.
"I wanted to show you my good stuff," he says before leading me to his living room, where we sat and talked for almost an hour. He had to tell me why he could not stand to vote for former Congressman Ron DeSantis and vote for Andrew Gillum.
Lori Gaglione, a disability rights lawyer living in Atlantic Beach, joins us. A few days ago, I had surprised Gaglione and some friends at an event organized by Gillum in downtown Jacksonville, speaking of the changing political landscape of Atlantic Beach and other communities of beach. She introduced me to Bryant to illustrate her point.
"Ron DeSantis is a Trump soap opera," Bryant said. "I respect his service to the country. He went to Yale. He went to Harvard. You must be very intelligent. But it's a "I'm with Trump, everything he says goes without saying."
As Bryant, 71, writes, Trump destroyed the Republican Party, which used to name men like the late John McCain as a standard bearer. Bryant was particularly upset by Trump's lack of respect for McCain and the way Republican leadership was comfortable and willing.
"I'm tired of it," you can only vote for your party, "he said." If you're Republican, no matter what the President says or what another Republican says, nobody is called on the carpet. Are the Democrats perfect? No they are not. I have just seen neo-conservative Christians who have built the Bible and that troubles me. "
When Gaglione and I left Bryant's home, she told him about the Gillum events she's volunteering for. He told her that he had volunteered for Obama in 2012 and that he wanted to work for Gillum.
"Tell them I'm ready," Bryant told Gaglione. "I support him."
We were at Ponte Vedra Beach, an unincorporated seaside community in St. Johns County, some 30 km southeast of downtown Jacksonville. Bryant said there were more people like him, but they did not want to admit it openly.
I have heard similar stories from other Republicans in Ponte Vedra and Atlantic Beach, an affluent and almost independent city integrated into Jacksonville, Florida's largest city. It is located in Duval County, one of the most conservative areas of North Florida. Duval has become more purple than red in recent years, giving Democrats hope to return it on Tuesday. Trump just barely won in 2016. Gillum's hung on the county during his primary premiership, largely thanks to black voters. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence, among them locals and around Atlantic Beach, of reluctance for which Republicans frustrated by Trump plan to support Gillum. Since DeSantis and Gillum are stuck in a tight race, any defection can help to tip the result one way or another.
Florida may be a turning state in national elections, but it is much redder. Republicans have been in power here for over 20 years. Atlantic Beach remains a conservative trend. Trump, as unhappy as he is among the centrist and leftist Republicans, is still very popular here, even though national trends have shown that Trump's popularity was falling with every racist sexist tweet.
Democrats hope that Trump's polarizing policy will dissuade enough Republicans from choosing not to vote or support Gillum. Republican strategists say they should not have too much hope.
"This is not at all prevalent in the Jacksonville area," said John Dowless, chairman of Millennium Consulting, whose clients are mostly Republicans, about a possible defection of Republicans in the column. Gillum. "There is no way. This does not mean that it will not happen. But I'm pretty confident that this is not a widespread opinion in this area. "
Alex Patton, Republican strategist in Gainesville, does not believe that the number of defectors will be important.
"There are never any deceivers," Patton said. "There is a part of the Republican Party, I think is relatively small, that will vote for Andrew Gillum just because they want to burn the Republican Party and rebuild it again. I think another segment of the Republican Party will leave the ballot blank. Or they will write Mickey Mouse. "
Gillum emerged with a five-point advantage over the former Congressman in polls, after DeSantis' disastrous record in his second debate. Although Trump is popular here, his popularity among Republicans has declined somewhat. A survey conducted in July revealed a drop of seven percentage points. A Florida Atlantic poll released in September showed a further decline. That did not stop Trump from visiting the state on Wednesday, with the intention of returning on Saturday, probably because the president relies heavily on DeSantis because he has invested more in his success than any other candidate. he sponsored. One could argue that the success or failure of DeSantis rests almost exclusively on Trump.
In comparison, Gillum probably benefits from early voting results. In Miami-Dade County, rich in Democrats, local authorities expect a turnout of 60%, which would be a mid-term record. On Tuesday, the advance vote had increased by more than 160% compared to 2014, with more than 155,000 votes cast in person. By the close of the polls on Monday, more people had been voting early in 2018 compared to all of 2014, according to the Miami Herald. Overall, Republicans in Florida vote early, at a slightly higher rate than Democrats, but that's typical. Black voters traditionally gather in large numbers on polling day.
Another trend could also play an important but uncertain role in the outcome of the race. Registrations of independent voters in Florida have seen higher increases than Democrats or Republicans since 2016. The latest survey showed that Gillum was leading double digits with this demographic. Many people who I have spoken to for this story consider themselves to be conservatives or have gone from the GOP to independent status. It also excited the Democrats of Duval County.
"I have a lot of conservative friends who support Gillum, but they are too scared to put their Gillum signs in their lawns," Gaglione said while she was showing me off Atlantic Beach.
Florida is not "a state full of racist and white bullshit," she said.
This campaign is personal to Gaglione. The last Democratic governor of Florida served in 1998. This is one of the few legitimate shots she and other Democrats must elect one of their own. The fact that he is a 39-year-old black man would help shake some of Florida's negative images as a race backlog.
"All of you in the North think that we hate all blacks here and that we are a state full of hicks," she told me. "It's just not true."
In addition, Americans, white Republicans and Democrats, are aware of the reality that "things can go wrong" with Trump, she said.
I asked why it had taken Trump to convince them of this possibility when blacks had warned that America Trump was a crap to wait. We did not need to see Trump to predict how things could go wrong.
"Yes, that's right," Gaglione said.
Gaglione, a resident of the community for more than 20 years, says he has never seen so many blue signs in people's gardens. As we headed for Atlantic Beach, there was a house on our left that contained so much Trump and Republican literature that it looked like wallpaper. But as we continued to roll the streets lined with oaks and walnut, signs indicating Gillum and the Democratic Party began to appear.
"A good friend of mine supports Gillum," said Gaglione. "She is republican. I gave him a Gillum campaign sign, but she has not set it up yet. "
We visited the house of this friend and, indeed, there was no documentation of campaign on the lawn. This friend, Maryanne Lambertson, welcomed us. Her husband, Chris, joined us a few minutes later. Each of them supports Gillum.
Maryanne was a long-time Republican until she supported Obama in 2012. She has since voted for democracy. Her volunteer work with underserved children convinced her that democratic policies and principles, such as universal health care and the promotion of a shared economy, better reflected her moral and political values. . Chris is still Republican and does not intend to change party.
He works in the construction industry and is concerned about the impact of Gillum's liberal economic policy on business, but he would be more comfortable under a "Governor Gillum than Governor DeSantis".
"I just despise Trump," he said. "I do not agree with most of Gillum's comments, I'm against the minimum wage of $ 15 an hour, but DeSantis is Trump, and I do not want Trump in Florida. Gillum signs in the garage, but I do not ask them, I do not want to attract too much negative attention from my conservative friends. "
Maryanne does not share her husband's hesitation on Gillum's policy proposals and thinks citizens of the state and Atlantic Beach have been energized because they are "looking for something new".
Maryanne and Chris say they have Conservative friends who also vote for Gillum but are hesitant to admit it publicly. And they have many friends who support DeSantis, even if they are "embarrassed".
Why I asked.
"Because of Trump," she replied.
Chris nodded.
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