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The researchers found that additional weather observations in the Arctic can help predict more accurately the trajectory and intensity of tropical cyclones and mid-latitudes, thereby improving weather forecasts for extreme weather events.
Higher-level observations, such as radiosondes in the Arctic, can help predict extreme events of medium latitude. The impacts of Arctic observations can be transmitted through the tropospheric polar vortex, which is a mass mass of low pressure air over the Arctic or Antarctic regions at about 10 km altitude.
The tropospheric polar vortex sometimes extends to mid-latitudes accompanied by meanders of mid-latitude western jets. This extension can occur even in summer, that is to say in August-September, where meandering and extension have been relatively active in recent years. For example, the impacts of Arctic radiosonde observations could influence mid-latitude extremes, the trajectories of three tropical cyclones approaching Japan or the northern United States and Greenland, as the impacts have been reflected in the extended tropospheric polar vortex.
A better understanding of these influences can help us better predict, track and prepare for extreme weather events such as cyclones. Currently, weather observations are made by radiosonde, a meteorological instrument that records meteorological data, usually released into the atmosphere with a weather balloon. However, because of the harsh conditions in the Arctic and the limited range of the low pressure system, the number and frequency of these observations are limited. As a result, there are gaps in the data that make weather forecasts less accurate than they could and should be, potentially endangering people's lives.
"Extreme weather events have been frequently observed in any season around the world," said lead author Kazutoshi Sato. "Hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most influential phenomena for human life, and accurate weather forecasts are essential to enable communities to adequately prepare for weather disasters," he added.
For the study, researchers conducted weather prediction experiments for three tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and North Pacific in 2016 to determine if additional observations could better predict their trajectory and intensity.
To supplement observations of existing weather data, additional observations were made using weather balloons from Arctic land and sea weather stations. The data was analyzed using a developed data assimilation system that can produce reanalysis datasets by "mixing" (assimilating) observations to global atmospheric conditions: the system was indispensable for forecast. Additional observations improved the predictability of cyclones, allowing scientists to track cyclone trajectories and predict their intensity more accurately.
Additional observations of radiosondes and their assessment of weather forecasts have been conducted privately by scientists, said Inoue, adding that "this quiet revolution in forecasting is of course beneficial to end-users". the harsh environment in the Arctic.
"From July to September 2018, an additional 3,000 radiosondes were launched from the Arctic region to reduce the uncertainty of forecasts in the Arctic and beyond as part of the Polar Year Project", declared Inoue, researcher. "Many meteorological centers will assess their impact on the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere, understanding the predictability of the atmosphere, oceans and sea ice will progress with the progress of the Arctic observing network and model development. digital. "
With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate and global warming, the ability to predict and track tropical cyclones more accurately can help communities prepare for potentially devastating storms, which can help save lives.
The results were published in the Journal of Scientific Reports.
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