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Say goodbye to ET, Marvin the Martian and Yoda. Humans are probably the only intelligent life in the universe, researchers at Oxford University reported in an article published on the academic pre-print server arXiv.
The researchers found "a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (respectively 53% -99.6% and 39% -85%)".
The team studied the so-called "Fermi paradox", which asks, "If intelligent extraterrestrial life exists, why did not we hear about it?"
Alien hunters have come up with many explanations for solving the problem – including one of the authors of the study, Anders Sandberg, who suggested that intelligent alien life might be dozing off while waiting for the universe to cool down and the energy to gain in value.
The team showed that such speculation could take advance in the paper, which was submitted to the scientific journal Acts of the Royal Society of London A.
We may have heard nothing from strangers because they just do not exist.
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The researchers evaluated the famous Drake equation, which estimates the number of extraterrestrial civilizations detectable in the Milky Way. Extraterrestrial hunters can enter various values - the number of planets in a star system that could be hospitable to life, for example – in the equation to produce a number.
The team tightened the equation by introducing chemical and genetic models and tackling some uncertainties implicit in the calculations. "When people discuss the equation, it's not uncommon to hear them say something like," This parameter is uncertain, but guess it's a guess ", eventually reaching a result what they admit is based on assumptions "Sandberg told Universe Today.
The equation, however, pumps a single number without considering all of these assumptions. "This often leads to overconfidence," continued Sandberg. "Worst, Drake's equation is very sensitive to bias: if you're optimistic, a little nudge upward in several uncertain estimates will yield a hopeful result, and if you're pessimistic you can easily get a low result. "
By introducing a range of uncertainties, the team thinks it can repress the biases. "What we do not show, is that [the search for extraterrestrial life (SETI)] is useless, quite the contrary! Sandberg said, "There is a huge level of uncertainty to reduce."
Paper does not mean that aliens do not exist, or even that we will not find them. On the contrary, it reinforces the confidence of scientists that we are probably the only intelligent species in the galaxy – and, by proxy, the universe.
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