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WASHINGTON – In September, President Trump called on world leaders to reduce their purchases of Iranian oil before the imposition on November 5 of major sanctions, the last major pieces of the blockade imposed by the administration on the Iranian economy.
"We call on all nations to isolate the Iranian regime as long as its aggression continues," Trump told the United Nations.
But less than a week before the crucial deadline of this Monday, the campaign against Iran faces serious challenges. China and India, the main buyers of Iranian oil, will continue to make huge purchases, followed by Turkey and possibly Russia. Britain, France and Germany have promised to continue doing business with Tehran.
And Saudi Arabia, an essential partner of the administration in its efforts against Iran, faces global censorship and threats of sanctions from Congress after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and dissident. The sanctions imposed on Saudi Arabia could jeopardize efforts to maintain the stability of world oil prices due to the fall in Iranian exports.
European diplomats and oil analysts say that even after sanctions are applied, Iran will sell at least a million barrels of oil a day, a sharp drop from last year but enough to support its economy . and wait for Mr. Trump's term.
The administration's stated goal in the sanctions campaign is for Iran to bring about a dozen fundamental changes to its domestic and foreign policy, including the end of its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. . Few analysts believe that the current Iranian government could meet demand and survive.
"The Trump administration is by no means in a position to achieve its 12 stated goals because they are quite unrealistic," said Robert Einhorn, a researcher at the Brookings Institution. "Unless there are significant changes, this policy is doomed to failure."
But efforts to tighten the screws on Tehran in the coming months could still alienate the European allies, weigh on China's relationship with a new difficult dispute, undermine decades of efforts to seduce the country. India and hinder the stabilization of Syria and the battle against the Islamic State.
Administration officials are partially rejecting these risks, as earlier warnings from critics about the drawbacks of dropping the Iranian nuclear deal were largely untrue.
Iran
Iran 's oil and gas exports are at the heart of Iran' s financial future, and Trump administration officials have categorically said for months that "no one is here. they had the intention to reduce these exports to zero and penalize any country that would continue its purchases after November 4 – which would effectively destroy the Iranian economy. . On Tuesday, a spokesman for the state department withdrew from these unrelenting requests.
"Our goal remains to reach zero oil purchase in Iran as quickly as possible. That has not changed, "spokesman Robert Palladino said at a news briefing, adding," But we are ready to work with countries that reduce their imports on a case-by-case basis. "
The November 5 sanctions target the Iranian central bank, oil companies and shipping companies, and add to a set of sanctions that came into effect in August. Threats from the administration have already persuaded buyers in Europe, Japan and South Korea to largely stop buying from Iran.
As a result, Iran's crude oil exports from tankers fell by more than 20 percent, from $ 2.3 million in May to 1.8 million barrels a day. Oil exports continued to fall in October, according to IHS Markit, an energy analysis firm.
But at the United Nations General Assembly in September, the British, French, German and European foreign ministers joined those of Russia, China and Iran, promising to collaborate in the creation of 39, an "ad hoc vehicle" independent of the dollar to continue commercial relations. Trump Administration Officials reacted to the announcement with derision and fury.
Even in Europe, economists and officials doubt that the new financial channel will produce significant economic benefits for Iran or threaten the global dominance of the dollar in the near future. And yet, his symbolism was profound. Any sanctions on the new chain or any other European initiative to save the nuclear agreement would aggravate the transatlantic links already seriously compromised.
China, India and Turkey
Beijing presents another challenge. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil and, although Beijing has recently Asked two big state oil companies to suspend their purchases for a while, China will most likely remain the biggest buyer. The Trump administration has given Beijing "no reason to comply with US law on Iran," said Sung-Yoon Lee of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Medford. Massachusetts.
Some predict that the government will announce sanctions against some Chinese entities on Nov. 5 to show tenacity against Beijing, popular with Trump's voters, ahead of the mid-term elections the next day. But such sanctions will most likely be largely symbolic. Tariffs against China have already scared Wall Street and lowered global growth forecasts. Broad sanctions could trigger a panic.
In India, Iran's second largest oil buyer, private companies like the energy giant Reliance have largely stopped buying it. Government entities have increased their purchases over the summer in order to post discounts next year, analysts said. But major purchases are likely to continue.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's re-election campaign planned for next spring will prevent him from adhering to US demands on Iran, said Mohan Guruswamy, a distinguished man at the Observer Research Foundation in India.
"Modi can not be considered an attack on Iran, because the public does not agree with the United States on these new sanctions," said Mr. Guruswamy.
Heather Nauert, a spokeswoman for the State Department, recently described India's ongoing purchases of Iranian oil as "aid" and said "India would find out" if sanctions were applied.
But sanctions against India would violate a host of US priorities, including efforts to strengthen Afghanistan; counter China and Pakistan; and increase sales of US oil, natural gas and military equipment.
Turkey, which derives the bulk of its oil and natural gas from Iran and Russia, will continue its oil purchases and other trade relations with Iran, diplomats said. and analysts. Recent warming between Ankara and Washington after The release of an American pastor would be penalized, said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy.
Victory tower
The sanctions hurt, but they have not yet produced clear strategic victories for the Trump administration. Despite sanctions imposed on North Korea, Russia and Venezuela, Pyongyang has yet to show any sign of slowing down the production of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. President Vladimir V. Putin has only risen and Venezuela continues to sink into anarchy.
Administration officials will take a victorious turn on November 5th. They are aware that when Trump announced he was giving up the Iran nuclear deal, critics had predicted that Tehran would soon resume its nuclear program, which would drive down oil prices. outbreak, and that the sanctions would never really bite without the support of others in the agreement.
None of these warnings have been proven, which has given government officials great confidence in their policies.
