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Simon Denyer
Head of the Tokyo office covering Japan, North Korea and South Korea.
TOKYO – President Trump may have fallen "in love" with his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong Un, but Pyongyang wants more than just words. He wants Washington to prove his affection – by lifting the sanctions.
While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo travels to Pyongyang this weekend to pave the way for a second Trump-Kim summit, North Korea appears to have strengthened its demands, saying that United States should show that they are serious about dialogue by relaxing the need to proceed to denuclearization.
After a summit between leaders of the two Koreas last month, Kim said he was ready to finally dismantle his country's main nuclear site, but only if the US also took the necessary steps to build confidence.
At the time, it seemed that meant a declaration officially ending the 1950-53 Korean War, signaling an end to hostilities between the two countries. But over the last few days, Pyongyang has said she may want to do more than that.
A declaration to end the war should have come half a century ago, after the signing of an armistice agreement by the warring parties, the central Korean press agency wrote on Tuesday. . "It can never be a currency of exchange for the denuclearization of the DPRK."
North Korea is called the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
According to KCNA, Yongbyon's facilities, on the other hand, constitute an "essential" element of the country's nuclear program. It is the site of the only nuclear reactor in the country, which produces plutonium that can be used in nuclear weapons, but which would also house a separate uranium enrichment facility.
"KCNA's comment shows that North Korea is constantly raising their demands," said Woo Jung-yeop, a researcher at the Sejong Institute of South Korea.
North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho on Saturday delivered such a militant message to the UN General Assembly.
"The perception that sanctions can put us on our knees is a dream for those who are unaware of our existence," he said. "But the problem is that continual sanctions deepen our distrust."
He added: "Without confidence in the United States, there will be no confidence in our national security and in such circumstances we will never unilaterally disarm."
Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers' Party of Korea, stressed this point in an editorial on Sunday.
"Sanctions and dialogue can never go together," he said. "It's a contradiction that the United States is talking about dialogue with their partners while strengthening sanctions and lobbying. The United States should keep abreast of the current trend and make the right choice. "
The United States argues that the sanctions should remain in force until North Korea is completely and denuclearized.
[A massive spike in oil smuggling eases the economic pressure on North Korea]
Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that the comments "really [put] a bit of cold water "in the hope that North Korea will provide a list of its nuclear sites and missile sites in exchange for an end-of-war declaration.
To build confidence, North Korea seems to want "a transformation of the relationship, and the first step in this process should be a complete reduction of sanctions," he said.
Experts say Pyongyang is not ready to provide a complete list of its nuclear facilities, saying it would be either disrespectful or give the US a list of their future military targets.
Instead, he wants to take things at his own pace, offering Yongbyon as part of a staged process in which both parties take steps to build trust.
Yongbyon's closure offer "is not at the heart of their program. But it's a good first step, "said Joel Wit, a researcher at the Stimson Center in Washington, who had been involved in previous negotiations with North Koreans while working for the State Department. "Knowing the North Koreans, I think they have other things in their hands that they are willing to do."
Experts disagree about North Korea's sincerity: some, like Narang, say that disarmament is not really important, and that the process is all the more beneficial.
According to others, Pyongyang could be willing to reduce – but not eliminate – its nuclear stockpiles and missile capacity, in exchange for Washington 's economic benefits and security guarantees.
The South Korean government and some experts are going further, saying that Kim could be ready to proceed to complete denuclearization – under the right circumstances.
Even some skeptics, however, recognize that the ongoing dialogue has brought rewards in terms of ceasing nuclear tests and missiles and reducing tensions.
The question is how long this process of dialogue can be maintained and how it will end: with a North Korea without nuclear weapons at peace with its neighbors, with the relaxation and containment of a de facto state nuclear weapons, or with a return to transparency hostility.
For now, Pompeo could explore the seriousness with which North Korea proposes to dismantle Yongbyon and what it wants in return, and then decide whether this represents a solid foundation for another meeting between Trump and Kim, which the two leaders seem to want to realize.
[Kim wants new summit with Trump soon to continue denuclearization]
The Blue House, president of South Korea, has advocated for a declaration of end of war and predicts that such a statement could come after the meeting between Trump and Kim.
A senior Blue House official, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, told reporters Wednesday that Seoul had initially thought that a Trump-Kim summit could take place after the mid-term elections. mandate in the United States on November 6, but the fact that Pompeo is visiting Pyongyang earlier than expected "sends a positive signal" that this could happen sooner.
At a campaign rally on Saturday, Trump said Kim and he had "fallen in love," adding, "He wrote me beautiful letters."
Pompeo, on his fifth visit to Pyongyang this year, is expected to meet Kim on Sunday, which, according to experts, would be a positive sign. He begins his trip to Tokyo and will also visit Seoul and Beijing.
"Clearly, these conversations are going in the right direction and we feel confident enough to get on a plane to get there," state department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Tuesday.
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