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The French, pioneers of classical ballet, are familiar with the no two, the complex dance where two people surround themselves and curl themselves in the center of the stage. This weekend, it will be President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron who will move their slippers, while the US President will travel to France for the world celebrations marking the centenary of the end of the First World War.
For the French leader, the next few days offer an opportunity to reinvigorate a declining presidency. Its popularity has fallen sharply in recent months in French opinion polls, partly because of the rise of far-right nationalism throughout Europe, where fierce campaigns are underway for elections to the United States. European Parliament next May.
Thus, Macron seized the commemoration – to which 60 world leaders will participate for three days of summit, wreath laying and speech – as a moment to embody his central message: Globalism is the only guarantee of peace, while the Trump's nationalism, and more and more European Union leaders who seem to imitate it, will lead to a disaster like a century ago.
He will seek to become the world's standard bearer for global agreements on climate, trade and security, at a time when Trump has pulled the United States out of most of them, and as a partner Macron's core, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is now a lame duck leader.
Throughout the week, Macron visited giant cemeteries after the calamitous war of 1914-1918, which devastated entire regions of France and killed about 10 million people, including more than half of French soldiers sent to battle.
Visibly moved by the scale of the carnage, Macron visited Tuesday at the Verdun military cemetery in northern France, and openly declared to Europeans, during a radio interview, that the peace time that they took for granted was "precarious" and could well be a "parenthesis". "In the bloody history of the continent.
"Nationalism is developing, it advocates the closing of borders," he said. He added that today's difficult political struggles bore a "resemblance" to the 1930s, which led to Nazism and the Second World War, killing millions. The First World War, he said, "teaches us the absurdity of conflict and bellicose nationalism".
Macron was addressed to Europeans, of course. But he may have simply targeted his words to Trump, the most powerful nationalist leader in the world. In recent months, the two men have clashed openly over extremely controversial issues, including Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the Paris Climate Change Agreement; to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal, which the US and the United States negotiated carefully; and move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. All these decisions were decisions which Macron had vainly invoked and which Trump had not taken, thus underlining the lesser power of the French president in relations.
The White House played down the idea of tensions between the two leaders. "I think they have a great personal relationship," National Security Adviser John Bolton told a group of journalists in Paris on Friday. "There have been disagreements on substantive policy issues, of course. But I think this is because the two leaders defend what they consider to be their best national interests. "
But the image of the American president in France, and even in much of Europe, has been a disrespectful tyrant. Key moments on television, like that of Trump who allegedly removed the dandruff from Macron's shoulder during a meeting at the White House last April, have remained etched in memory.
"The image of the majority is very bad," says Jerome Fourquet, director of public opinion at the Ifop polling agency in Paris. He estimates that the reputation of the United States in Europe is at its lowest since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, to which France refused to participate. "Even among the French who pay no attention to the United States, Trump is perceived as a warmongering," says Fourquet. "He is considered dangerous and not very stable psychologically."
This is at least the perception of most French, but not all. It is crucial to note that Trump is among the fans nationalists who hate Macron and now refine their knives for the European election campaign, believing they have the political support of a much more powerful leader than those of their own country.
"The new cleavage is no longer between right and right," said Marine Le Pen, leader of the French far right, in an interview with TIME in October, in his office of the Assembly. national body to which it is elected. "All of this has disappeared. It's now nationalists against globalists. "Macron," she said, "defends a world dying. "
This schism between nationalism and globalism will highlight many of the discussions this weekend, as leaders mark the catastrophic nationalism caused by the First World War.
Trump must meet Macron Saturday morning at the Elysee. After a solemn tribute day, he and Melania Trump will join world leaders and their partners at the sumptuous Musée D'Orsay in Paris for a dinner Saturday night.
Macron will hold a lunch Sunday at the Elysee with all the leaders; Among those arriving are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres and a dozen others.
On the surface, leaders might seem united in solemnity. But below us, this sense of common purpose is deeply frayed. That will be clear Sunday afternoon, when Trump will visit the American cemetery of Suresnes, west of Paris, place of burial of 1 541 Americans killed during the war, before returning to Washington.
Trump will do this tour alone. On this occasion, Macron, Merkel and Guterres will officially open a three-day conference called the Paris Peace Forum, during which politicians, business leaders and government officials will debate issues ranging from terrorism to terrorism. Economic Growth.
At the same time, thousands of people are expected to protest against the US president on the Republic Square in Paris on Sunday afternoon. The organizers announced that they would protest against what they regard as Macron's overly polite relationship with Trump. "Macron bows to him," says Bénédicte Gambirasio, one of the organizers. "We know that there are commercial contracts at stake, but we would like it to be firmer."
As many no twofinding the delicate balance is exceptionally difficult. "Macron must avoid falling into a trap," says Fourquet. "He must keep a good distance from Trump. Yet, we are celebrating the 100th anniversary of the First World War, a time when we should be very close to the United States, "he said. "The problem is, it's not a relationship of equals."
