Assassination of Jamal Khashoggi: What is the game of Turkey with Saudi Arabia?

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Type "Erdogan slap …" in Google and the list is endless: the UN, the EU, Israel, French intellectuals, the Netherlands and Germany. The last two were labeled "Nazis" and "fascist" by the Turkish president a year ago.

Now compare that with Erdogan's remarks about Saudi Arabia, which acknowledged the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his consulate in Istanbul. "I have no reason to doubt the honesty of King Salman," he said.

His spokesman described it as "friendly and fraternal country".

And yet, incriminating and often macabre leaks have been regularly reported by the pro-government Turkish media just to rein in the thunderbolts of Riyadh, while mighty Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had knowledge of the assassination or had ordered his assassination. .

• The journalist who disappeared in a consulate
• Who is who in the hit hit?

So, what is the game of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan?

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Reuters

I am told that his decidedly restrained tone is intended to show that it is not about Turkey against Saudi Arabia; this relationship is too important, even if it is already tense, to be destroyed at this stage. He wants to urge King Salman to act, without targeting him directly.

"If Erdogan were to tell the king to sack Mohammed bin Salman, that would be the best way to convince him not to sack the crown prince," a source close to the president said.

Mr. Erdogan did not even mention bin Salman specifically in his speech to Parliament: a deliberate omission for not bringing the crown prince to his level.

The goal in Ankara is to dig a gap between the king and his son. But the key to this is not Riyadh, but Washington.

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If Donald Trump – the Crown Prince's faithful ally – can be persuaded to give up MBS, as he knows, it could be a turning point for King Salman.

Main rivals in the regional power game

That said, the 82-year-old king, at least for the moment, shows no sign of his son's dislocation.

One of the answers to this murder was to announce a restructuring of the Saudi intelligence services, under the aegis of the Crown Prince.

• Is this the end of the Saudi prince's honeymoon?

Feed all this is a game of regional power.

Turkey respects Saudi Arabia as the guardian of the most sacred sites of Islam – which is strongly felt by the Islamic government of Erdogan.

But they compete to gain influence as leaders of the Muslim world and the Crown Prince has become a key rival to Mr Erdogan. He organized and imposed the blockade of Qatar, the closest ally of Turkey to the Middle East. He continued the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, linked to Erdogan's ruling AK party.

And his rapprochement with Israel, Erdogan 's pet peeve and his hard line against Iran, with which Turkey reconciled, have placed Riyadh and Ankara at the opposite of regional politics. .

The risky strategy of Erdogan

Erdogan sees a rare moment when the Saudis are on the sidelines and takes the opportunity to reduce a man qualified by a pro-government editorialist here "Turkey's enemy".

• Why does Saudi Arabia count for the West?

The fact that the United Arab Emirates and Egypt also rushed to the defense of Riyadh only made Mr. Erdogan's determination more difficult. Ankara is scrambled with both.

The Turkish government largely suspects the UAE of supporting the failed coup d'état here in 2016 – Mr Erdogan has recently labeled them "miserable people" – and the president will never forgive Abdul Fattah al-Sisi for his failure. Egypt to have ousted the Muslim Brotherhood.

And the fact that the planes of the alleged Saudi team are refueling in Cairo and Dubai en route to Riyadh will fuel suspicions of complicity.

Erdogan's strategy, however, is risky. By alienating the still-powerful MBS, Saudi Arabia could be ruled by a man deeply rooted against Turkey for years to come.

The opportunity to take pictures of the Crown Prince shaking hands with Jamal Khashoggi's son, who is forbidden to leave Saudi Arabia, has revealed the power he still exercises ruthlessly. The message: we have reconciled, so overcome yourself.

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EPA

And for the moment, the White House holds onto the crown prince. "We are getting information from many places," said Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior advisor. "Once these facts are known, the Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what we want to believe."

The implication is clear: form a story and sell it to the support base.

Rarely was a story also combined: horrible murder, sloppy concealment, overt regional relations, geopolitics between Washington and the Middle East and the fact that a powerful oil producer and military power may stain indelibly.

If the Saudis thought that a swift operation in Istanbul could be swept away, they would commit a colossal miscalculation.

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