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Reuters
The accession to power of Mohammed bin Salman has been dazzling – but can he survive the Khashoggi scandal?
"He is a toast". "It is toxic". "He is my hero". "We love him".
The opinions are clearly divided on the man they call "MBS" – the controversial crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.
- Who is the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed?
Cack-handed operation
Since the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate on Oct. 2, the MBS mark has become a toxic substance in the West.
The Saudi authorities deny that he himself was involved in the murder – in a conspiracy elaborated in his close entourage of the royal court of Diwan al-Maliki – sparked a deep skepticism.
In a part of the world where almost nothing is done without approval from above, the current Saudi version that it was a sort of sneaky operation does not seem not plausible.
A discreetly advanced theory in the Gulf is that while MBS wanted to "do something" about Khashoggi's harsh criticism, he never sanctioned the killing and that the man who ran his office, Saud al-Qahtani, had overstepped his orders by saying the participants had everything approved by the Crown Prince.
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Reuters
There have been a number of demonstrations against the Saudi Crown Prince
The problem is that apart from Saudi Arabia, no one believes the Saudi story.
For days, the Saudi media, indignant, denied any suggestion that Khashoggi had been inside the consulate, claiming instead that he had gone out on the streets of Istanbul.
Then we were told that he had died in a "fist fight".
The latest version of the Saudi prosecutor states that his murder was indeed premeditated.
Saudi Arabia's treatment of the killing was as devious as the operation itself.
One can only assume that if MBS listened to the good advice of its well-paid media advisers, he did not take it.
Decisive moment
All this leaves MBS on the shores of world public opinion, and a person with whom most Western governments and multinationals do not want to be associated.
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For Saudi Arabia, a country that was only officially convened in 1932, this represents a turning point.
Do the higher princes temper this all-powerful figure by withdrawing just enough of his powers to appease the US Congress and other Western bodies, some of whom are now calling for a boycott of arms?
Do they "dethrone" him completely, giving him a title promotion in an insignificant sinecure?
Or are they trying to resist the storm, as they tried to do, unsuccessfully, after this story broke out a month ago?
In fact, extremely serious discussions are going on behind closed doors in royal circles in Saudi Arabia.
The seriousness of the crisis facing the ruling family, the al-Saud family, can be measured by the sudden return to Riyadh on Tuesday of Prince Ahmed bin Abdelaziz, the last brother of the 82-year-old survivor of King Salman.
He arrived from London in the middle of the night to be greeted with puffs of bukhur incense and kissed his fellow princes, including MBS himself.
Prince Ahmed, a calm and thoughtful man, had become a cult hero among those who opposed MBS after speaking out against the war in Yemen and blaming the Crown Prince and his father.
He was told that he was afraid to return to Riyadh for fear of being placed under house arrest – but he is now back and helping the family to surround the carts around the senior officials.
No obvious challengers
So what are the factors they take into account for the future of MBS?
First of all, he has no obvious challengers, he has been watching some time ago.
At just 33, his rise to power was dazzling. Since he became crown prince last June, replacing the older, wiser but duller prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, MBS has managed to muster all the reins of power.
He controls the Ministry of the Interior (which includes the dreaded secret police Mabahith), the National Guard (an immense and loyal Praetorian Guard that protects the ruling family and their interests) and, as Minister of Defense, controls the armed forces.
He heads the Royal Court, economic policy and – although his sick father is king – it is MBS who really runs the country.
Even before the onset of the Khashoggi crisis in October, MBS's policies were increasingly controversial, prompting several senior Saudi officials to wonder if it was starting to become more of a liability than one. active.
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Very confident and blessed with his father's green light, MBS trained Saudi Arabia and its allies in a costly and seemingly impossible war in Yemen in 2015.
Last year, he locked up dozens of princes, businessmen, and personalities at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Riyadh until they agreed to repay sums of money. Money allegedly earned because of corruption.
This appealed very well to young Saudis, despite the fact that MBS had recently spent its energy on a $ 450 million (£ 347 million) super-yacht.
Then there is the ongoing conflict with neighboring Qatar, a major ally of the West.
Last weekend in Manama, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis made a point of mentioning the coalition's vital air base, which is home to 17 countries, recalling that the United States would like to see this conflict come to an end.
This year, South Africa's Minister of Foreign Affairs launched a useless scramble with Canada on human rights in Saudi Arabia, as well as numerous arrests of peaceful reformers.
It had been clear for some time that MBS was not a Democrat – a person who treated him described him as "a reckless and uncontrollable thug" – but until now, most Saudis were ready to forget his excesses.
Hi-Tech future hopes
For millions of young Saudis, MBS is still their hope for the future: a bold charismatic leader and a visionary reformer who overturned the powers of the conservative clergy, gave women the right to drive and reintroduced entertainment into the sterile public life of the kingdom.
His petroleum-based economy reform projects, embodied in his Vision 2030 program, gave Saudis an ambitious overview of a high-tech future with interesting jobs for all.
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For diplomats and policymakers in Washington, London and Paris, removing MBS – or at least restricting them – may seem like an obvious thing to do.
But for the conservative and cautious ruling family of Saudi Arabia, it is a decision that she would not have to take.
So is he finished? It's hard to say at this point.
Remember that around the middle of 2011, a few months after the Arab Spring uprising, almost everyone assumed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would be deposed before Christmas.
Seven years later, he is still in power.
