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The influenza cases in Australia have dropped by 83%, which, according to doctors, is the result of science, guesswork and "a little luck".
Key points
- Federal government figures show a sharp decline in influenza cases since January compared to 2017
- Falls largely because of more accurate vaccinations, say doctors
- Decrease may not continue next year as scientific assumptions evolve rapidly
According to federal government figures, only 40,000 cases of influenza were recorded from January to September, compared to nearly 230,000 during the same period last year.
The president of the Australian Medical Association, Antonio Di Dio, said the decrease was due to more and more people vaccinating and using a more effective vaccine this year.
"Each year, health authorities choose to retain some of the strains of the previous year and add one or two new strains to replace a new strain – and that's basically a very smart assumption and well documented – but ultimately a hypothesis, "he added. I said.
"Last year was the first year in a long time when flu shots were not as effective as usual because the most virulent strains we had in Australia were not the same. They were not completely covered by vaccination and this year they worked well. "
As influenza viruses change constantly, the vaccine is reviewed annually and updated to include the influenza viruses that made people sick the previous season, Dr. Dio explained.
It is a global effort, with more than 100 national influenza centers worldwide conducting a one-year influenza surveillance, before sending representatives to bi-annual meetings. of the World Health Organization on influenza.
These meetings, in which representatives of Australia are involved, are used to decide which virus strains to include in influenza from the northern and southern hemispheres.
The flu virus is tiny but complex
Professor Paul Kelly, Health Manager at ACT, said the process was complex.
"It's a bit of science and a bit of luck, really," he said.
"We are really trying to predict what will happen to a virus that we know is changing quite rapidly sometimes – nine months after the next influenza season."
However, despite this year's low rates of influenza, Professor Kelly urged people to remain vigilant about vaccines.
"The problem with the flu virus is that it's a tiny thing, only six genes, I think, but it has this ability to change itself, and even subtle changes can suppress that immunity that you're developing from a previous infection, "he said.
Despite this year's improvement, Dr. Dio warned against complacency.
"It's not because we have not had the flu this year – and anyway – that this does not announce in any case the next season," he said.
"So, it's likely that the flu will always be a problem, as is the case every winter."
Topics:
Medical sciences,
health,
vaccines and immunity,
canberra-2600,
act,
Australia
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