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PARIS – Soaring birth rates in a global baby boom while growing up in the country.
A global overview of birth, death and disease rates is one of the most important causes of death in the world.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), set up at the University of Washington by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, used more than 8,000 data sources – more than 600 of them public health.
Their sources included in-country investigations, social media and open-source material.
It found that while the world was skyrocketed from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 7.6 billion last year, that growth was deeply uneven according to region and income.
Ninety-one nations, mainly in Europe and North and South America, were not able to sustain their current populations, according to the IHME study.
But in Africa and Asia fertility rates continued to grow, with the average woman in Niger giving birth to seven children during her lifetime.
Ali Mokdad, Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, told AFP that the single most important factor in population growth education.
"It's down to socioeconomic factors but it's a function of a woman's education," he said. "The more a woman is educated, she is spending more years in school, she is delaying her pregnancies and she will have fewer babies."
The IHME found that Cyprus was the least fertile nation on Earth, with the average woman giving birth just in her life.
By contrast, women in Mali, Chad and Afghanistan have more than six babies.
'Less mortality,
more disability '
The United Nations predicts that it will be more than 10 billion humans on the planet by the middle of the century, broadly in line with IHME's projection.
This raises the question of how many people are known to Earth's "carrying capacity".
Mokdad said that while people in developing nations continue to rise, so are their growing economies.
This typically has a knock-on effect on fertility rates over time.
"In Asia and Africa, the population is growing up, and they are moving towards better income – unless there are wars or unrest," he said.
"Countries are expected to become more economically and more likely to be able to decline and level out."
Not only are there now more than 70 years ago, but we are living longer than ever before.
The study, published in The Lancet Medical Journal, showed male life expectancy had increased to 71 years from 48 in 1950. Women are now expected to live to 76, compared with 53 in 1950.
Living longer is one of the problems we have, and we are in the middle of the health care system.
The IHME said heart disease is now the leading cause of death globally. As recently as 1990, neonatal disorders were the largest killer, followed by lung disease and diarrhea.
Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Azerbaijan had the highest death rates in South Korea, Japan and France had among the lowest.
"You're less likely to get infected, but also more people living longer," said Mokdad.
He pointed out that these deaths from infectious diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis are very low since 1990, new, non-communicable killers have taken their place.
There are certain behaviors that are leading to an increase in cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Obesity is number one – it is increasing every year and our behavior is contributing to that. "
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