Based on the location of Hurricane Florence, we did not expect it to become so strong so soon



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Why did Hurricane Florence quickly intensify?
  • Hurricane Florence has intensified rapidly overnight.
  • This allowed Florence to become a major hurricane in an unusual place.
  • Environmental conditions were not particularly favorable for reinforcement.

FlorenceThe rapid intensification into a major hurricane was unusual because of its location and environmental conditions.

The rapid intensification refers to an increase in wind speed of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Florence met this criterion Tuesday to Wednesday when its maximum sustained winds increased by 45 mph Tuesday noon to Wednesday noon.

Florence's still intensified and became a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph Wednesday night in a surprising place like Richard Dixon, a meteorologist at CatInsight, noted.

Major hurricanes do not generally form so far north and east of the Atlantic Ocean. Florence is the most northerly hurricane of grade 4 to east of longitude 50W, according to Sam Lillo, meteorologist at the University of Oklahoma.

However, before satellites were used in the mid-1960s, hurricane strength may have been underestimated and other Category 4 storms may have occurred in this area.

Overall, the intensity forecasts for Florence have been a challenge.

Late Tuesday morning, Florence became a hurricane and remained a category 1 Hurricane until 5 pm Tuesday. Florence continued to strengthen and became the first major hurricane, category 3 or higher, of the season in the Atlantic Wednesday morning.

Enhanced satellite images of Hurricane Florence from September 4, 2018 at 5 pm until September 5, 2018 at 5 pm

The images above capture Florence since she started as a Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday night until she reached Category 4 status on Wednesday night. The structural changes are clearly visible with his eye more and more defined.

This rapid intensification is also rare because of the environmental conditions near Hurricane Florence.

As Lillo noted, a moderate to strong wind shear occurred just north of Florence. Wind shear, which refers to a change in direction and / or wind speed as a function of height, generally hampers the development of tropical cyclones because it can disrupt the circulation or the heart of the tropical cyclone.

Wind shear increased on Thursday. This weakened Florence and lost her symmetry.

(MORE: Why do some hurricanes grow quickly and others do not?)

In addition, sea surface temperatures were relatively cool where Florence followed.

Tropical cyclones generally require water temperatures above 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit) to form and thrive. Sea surface temperatures were slightly below average in the Atlantic region where Florence is located and are just below 80 degrees.

The red outline indicates where the sea surface temperatures are at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

Dry air was also spread near Florence. Dry air is another factor that generally limits the formation and strengthening of tropical cyclones.

Thursday, dry air infiltrated Florence leading to reduced convection on the south side.

Given the small size of Florence, wind shear and dry air had a strong influence on Thursday. Florence was quickly weakened, contrasting with its rapid intensification, 24 hours earlier.

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