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BERLIN – The Bavarians voted Sunday in a national election meant to bitterly defeat the region's prosperous conservative party, with unpredictable consequences for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's federal government.
Some 9.5 million people are eligible to vote in the Munich Legislature, where the Christian Social Union – an important but often clumsy ally of Merkel – has held an absolute majority for the past five years except five.
Polls suggest that he will lose this majority by a wide margin.
CSU, which has adopted a hard line against migration and has a socially conservative tradition, seems to be losing support both on the left and the right, with the Greens picking up voters in the Liberal spirit and the party of the United States. Far Right Alternative for Germany to win places.
The UHC is unlikely to lose power completely after a 61-year reign, but the mere act of governing with coalition partners would be a humiliating setback.
In Berlin, CSU is one of the three parties of Merkel's federal coalition government with her sister, Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, and the center-left Social Democrats.
The alliance has been marked in large part by internal quarrels since taking office in March – the CSU leader, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, often playing a leading role. Parties are slumping in national polls and the Social Democrats also seem to be losing ground on Sunday.
Back in Bavaria, after a long power struggle between CSU and the government, 69-year-old Seehofer stepped down as governor of the state this year in favor of his younger rival, Markus Soeder.
Soeder wants voters to credit the CSU to Bavaria's enviable prosperity, with an unemployment rate of only 2.8%, and keep it strong to ensure stability. He blamed Berlin for the bad reputation of the polls.
"Where Germany is good, Bavaria is better," he said at a rally on Friday. "It's no coincidence that the results on the economy, security and finances are so clear. A country needs a backbone. In Germany, the backbone is Bavaria, while in Bavaria the backbone is the Christian Social Union. "
Regional Greens co-leader Katharina Schulze said people were fed up with policies of "hate and agitation" and that they "want a policy that gives courage instead of fear." ".
And the far-right Alternative for Germany, which only entered the national parliament last year, is attractive to voters who want an uncompromising stance against migration and public order.
Seehofer has intermittently spoken to Merkel about migration since 2015, when he assailed his decision to leave Germany's borders open as refugees and others cross the Balkans. In June, they discussed the desirability of sending a small number of asylum seekers to the German-Austrian border, briefly threatening to overthrow the national government.
Seehofer also played a leading role in the coalition crisis last month alongside the head of the German intelligence services, accused of downplaying the recent violence of the far right against migrants.
There are many rumors that a poor Sunday performance could cost Seehofer his job, although he insisted that he stay. Meanwhile, Soeder has gone from a bitter debate about migration to the attempt to project an inclusive image as a leader of Bavaria.
According to polls, support for UHC would be 33%, up from 47.7% in 2013. The alternative solution for Germany is expected to gain 10% or more.
The Greens are in second place, with support of up to 19%, and the Social Democrats could lose nearly half of the 20.6% they had won five years ago.
Such results would probably leave the UHC looking for a coalition with the Greens, their often fierce opponents, or an alliance with pro-corporate Free Democrats and free center-right voters. A four-way alliance without CSU could be mathematically possible, but impractical.
It is unclear whether Bavaria's vote will affect the stability of the national government – or Merkel's long-term future. His replies could be delayed, as another election will be held on October 28 in neighboring Hesse, where conservative Volker Bouffier defends Merkel's 19-year-old CDU party in the governor's office.
Merkel, 64, who has headed Germany since 2005, has already been weakened by the government's internal struggles and the dismissal of a close ally as its party's parliamentary leader. She hopes that the bad results of the national elections will not create new political problems before the CDU party congress in December, where her leadership needs to be renewed.
"Of course, I hope for a good result for CSU," she said Friday. "I know we do not live in easy times. Otherwise, I'm waiting for the result. "
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