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Two months before the mid-term elections, beleaguered Republicans are largely giving up a dangerous political landscape, including a new series of dismal polls, indictments by two of their colleagues and a wandering president who threatened the government's closure on Wednesday.
Interviews with a dozen vulnerable GOP holders who have returned to Washington after a five-week break in the summer has revealed an unshakable faith that their personal brand, a strong economy and a Democratic party on the left will leave them in place. 6.
"I think they know me and they trust me, so that makes a difference," said Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.), Who is seeking re-election against a Democratic challenger who surpasses him from one million dollars. "It's my saving grace."
This optimistic outlook was echoed by leading GOP leaders on Wednesday at a closed meeting of Republicans and journalists afterwards.
"This is a result in relation to the resistance," said Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Seeking to contrast the low unemployment and Republican tax cuts with a liberal insurrection within the Democratic Party. E. Capuano, in Tuesday's primary in Massachusetts.
But that also echoes the optimistic predictions of Democratic House leaders in the weeks leading up to the mid-term of 2010 – when Republicans won 63 seats and took a majority in the House.
"Many of my colleagues said the same thing, and they came down:" I'll be fine. "They know me. "" I am unique. "They did not see the danger until it was too late, or they denied it," said Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) , who won a second term that year.
Representative John B. Larson (D-Conn.), Who then chaired the House's Democratic Caucus, quoted Yogi Berra when he was told about Republican responses: "It's already been seen again".
The headwinds for congressional Republicans seem to be strengthening. In Wednesday's closed meeting, GOP leaders focused on their plans for a "no drama" legislative agenda over the next few weeks, including passing bills to prevent the government's closure. October 1st. A few hours later, President Trump reversed this sentiment by refusing to rule out a ruling. "If that happens, it happens," he told reporters.
Meanwhile, several Republicans face accusations of misconduct that have fueled the democratic accusations of a "culture of corruption" in the GOP. The two House Republicans, Chris Collins (N.Y.) and Duncan D. Hunter (California), are facing criminal charges. Although Republican seats are generally safe, independent forecasters believe the two men are now vulnerable.
At least two clearly vulnerable incumbents also face ethical clouds: Representative Scott W. Taylor's (R-Va.) Campaign aides are accused of falsifying signatures to get a third-party candidate to vote to weaken a Democratic challenger to Taylor, and the House Ethics Committee announced this week that it would continue to consider whether Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa) was engaging in forbidden business practices while serving in Congress.
Another clear indicator of the political minefield facing Republicans is a poll released Tuesday by the Washington Post and ABC News that revealed that registered voters favoring Democratic presidential candidates were 14 points higher than Republicans. of the House.
In an interview with The Post last month, McCarthy said Republicans could retain control of the House as long as the national margin would favor Democrats by six points or less. On Wednesday, he downplayed the most recent polls.
"I think elections will be like the weather," he said. "Wait and the weather will change. Wait and this generic survey will also change next week.
The rank and file Republicans have also rebuffed recent polls – and their conclusion that the mid-term elections announce as a referendum on Trump rather than on their individual results.
Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), A third-district-focused candidate in a district centered on Little Rock, said he "heard about the economy and its improvement over the past two years."
For Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), A car dealership running in a redesigned neighborhood north of Pittsburgh who has become more democratic said he spent much of his summer reporting to new voters. feel a strong change against the Republicans. He was convinced that he would be able to advocate for the GOP's continued monitoring of the Congress.
"You need to know your district, you need to know who your base is and you need to be able to communicate with them," he said. "It's the same as my car business. There are some products that we do very well with. You know that you store hot stuff and stay away from things that are not.
While polls show persistent democratic enthusiasm, several vulnerable Republicans believe that the enthusiasm of GOP voters is just as high. Representative Tom MacArthur (RN.J.), who represents a traditionally Republican district in the southern part of his state, acknowledged that he was in a difficult race that, to some extent, will depend on voters' feelings about regard to Trump.
"But my feeling is that, at least, my district will go in the sense that it has always disappeared," he said. "I think [Trump] is also popular among the base, maybe more. And he is also unpopular among those who do not like him. . . . The group in the middle is the one who likes his policies but is not crazy about his personality and, in my opinion, on polling day, it can affect the turnout, but it does not affect what happens in polls.
Bishop said he thought he had a "natural buffer" among voters able to separate their feelings about Trump from their point of view.
"I think there is something out there, that the stars have aligned themselves on the moment of investing and bringing down people," he said. "But I do not necessarily think it's paying off, and it can also have repercussions, in many ways."
Bishop and most other Republicans said they were not worried about the frequency of the breaches, including recent indictments. Representative Mimi Walters (R-Calif.), Who lives in a wealthy area of Orange County not far from Hunter, said it was "just noise there."
"My feeling is that people focus only on their daily lives," she said.
But Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), In a competitive district in South Florida that Hillary Clinton won by 16 points, said Republicans should be worried: "It's just a constant scandal. People are tired of it, and I understand it. I'm tired of him. "
Curbelo, however, could be well positioned to face a blue wave. The strategists of both parties say he has done more than most Republicans threatened to part with Trump and lay the groundwork for successful re-election.
"I never felt politically stronger than I do now," he said. "Certainly my district, probably the country, wants the leaders who will come here, call it honestly, put the country first, do not read some partisan scenarios."
All Republicans surveyed said it was important to avoid a government shutdown or any indication over the next two months that one can not trust the GOP to keep the reins of power. Trump's threat Wednesday came after several tweets over the last few months on how a shutdown could help Republicans overcome democratic resistance to its controversial border and immigration policies.
Voters, Bishop said, "want to trust their government and all we can do to restore that trust, the better."
Others seek to cross the aisle and seek to put forward the threat that the Democratic majority – particularly a more liberal Democratic majority – could represent for the functioning of the government.
"The Democratic Party's goal is to move more and more to the left," MacArthur said. "We will have two years of dysfunction. You only have impeachment hearings and a complete cessation of all serious legislation. That's their intention, and I think the American people know it.
"I mean everyone is not in love with what's going on in Washington, but what they do not want is obstruction," said Rep. Jason Lewis (R-Minn. ). "Look at Kavanugh's audiences. Do you want that? Bring down the government in this kind of endless partisan obstructionism? The American people, regardless of their point of view of administration, do not want it.
Lewis – who won a point in 2016 and faces now the same Democratic opponent Angie Craig in November – said he was still waiting for a tough race.
"But the notion of" Oh my God, everything is lost "? Absolutely not," he said. "In fact, I've been encouraged by recess."
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