Betomania puts Texas on the line for Democrats

EL PASO, Texas – The most watched issue by Senators in the Senate was not whether rising star Democrats Beto O'Rourke would lose, but how many times.

The answer, according to the final unofficial count: not quite 2.7 percentage points.

While crowds of his disappointed supporters mourn his defeat of incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, the more general theme of the Democratic Party of that state is not that Texas remains under conservative control, but that the margin by which Republicans won the race in the Senate and some others narrower than anyone could have expected it not so long ago.

Attorney General Ken Paxton won by 3.6 points; Lt.-Gov. Dan Patrick triumphed by less than 5. These two incumbents won their races four years ago with a margin of more than 20 points, and their opponents were this time hardly any more. politicians.

And even though popular governor Greg Abbott was about to be re-elected, his underfunded and uninteresting opponent, former Dallas County sheriff Lupe Valdez had bridged the gap between the 20 Wendy Davis points in 2014 and an atrocious gap of 13.4 points.

The Democrats also won two key races, ousting the GOP holders already entrenched in two US districts – one in the Houston area, the other part of the Dallas metroplex.

None of this is good news for Texas Republicans. By 2020, the state is now much more competitive than it has been for at least a generation. And O'Rourke, at the beginning of the year, an obscure member of the House of Representatives of El Paso, has the merit.

"The long-term impact it will have is that more high-quality candidates (Democrats) will choose to run and I think more Texans will believe their votes will really count," Greg said. Hoss, Austin City Councilman, at HuffPost. "And now, at the national level, people really need to talk about Texas as a purple state."

The reasons behind the work before O'Rourke's emergence help explain the trend. Representatives of the Democratic State point out that their efforts to mobilize low-level voters began several years ago. Non-profit groups – including several non-partisan groups – have also stepped up their efforts in a state where turnout is lagging behind, especially among Hispanics.

The Democrats have been keen to challenge more races in Congress this year, raising the stakes for voters. The Texas electorate is also becoming younger, more urban and more diverse. All this favors the Democrats.

But the catalyst was undoubtedly O'Rourke.

"Basically, there was a" blue wave "inspired by O'Rourke's support for and dislike of President Donald Trump, political scientist Mark Jones of Rice University told HuffPost.

"Beto O'Rourke, except miracle, was always going to lose," said Jones. "The question was: could it reduce the margin of defeat to a low enough number so that it can spark enthusiasm for the democrats who are looking to the future?"

This effect played through the ballot. With the two seats in the House overthrown, the Democrats almost won a third – Republican Will Hurd, a moderate Republican (and good friend of O'Rourke), seems to have managed to win less than 1,200 votes . His opponent, Gina Ortiz Jones, refused to concede until all the ballots were counted.

In the legislature, the Republicans retained strong majorities, but lost two seats in the Senate and a dozen in the House. The state representative, Matt Rinaldi, who last year called representatives of immigration and customs to denounce undocumented militants on Capitol Hill, was among the losers. It was not an isolated result. Some of the conservatives of the most polarizing movements have lost or seen their margins of victory decrease.

"The biggest lesson is that Republican candidates, who are more rational and less polarizing, are doing far better than those who are less flexible and more polarizing," said Jones.

With the biannual legislative session of the state scheduled to begin in January, this will make it more difficult for extremist conservatives such as Patrick to define an ideological agenda, as he did last year when the lieutenant governor imposed strict restrictions on transgender toilets. (Measurement youit failed.)

But the most important thing to remember is that the leaders of the Texan Democratic Party are already much more confident by 2020. They have already noted a wave of interest in the recruitment of candidates for the next cycle, according to the director of communication of the party, Manny Garcia. They will clearly target the seat of Senator John Cornyn of the GOP.

The impact of the O'Rourke underdog campaign is not limited to losing fewer points. His aggressive ground game, anchored by his visits to each of the 254 counties of the state, offered a new model to stimulate enthusiasm. He leaves the State Party with a healthier infrastructure and a battalion of volunteers who have seen their work have an unlikely impact.

And being on the verge of defeating Cruz and raising a mediocre ticket throughout the process, O'Rourke has demonstrated to state donors and beyond that the Texas Democrats were worth investing.

Some Democrats in tight races across the country grumbled before election day O'Rourke did not distribute the more than $ 70 million in small donations he raised for a near-defeat. But well-known Texan Democrats have been complaining for years that the national party treats the state as an ATM, seeking funds for candidates from rotating states.

"During the 2016 election night, the Democrats of San Antonio, Houston and Dallas telephoned in Iowa and Ohio" to try to help the party in those states, Garcia said. "I think what this (the O'Rourke campaign) shows is that if we maintain our volunteer capacity here, if Texans speak to Texans and Texas donors fund candidates from Texas, we will win this state. "

It goes without saying that Texan Democrats are going from the front, it remains to be seen if others can replicate the success of O 'Rourke.

As a bilingual and bicultural border resident, he communicated with Hispanic voters on health care, immigration and his support to veterans. Not having the weight of an internal pollster to moderate his comments, O'Rourke voluntarily rallied at his many public meetings and electoral rallies – often becoming viral when he addressed contentious cultural issues, the best known being defending players of the National Football League who kneel during the national anthem to protest racial injustices.

An optimist inflexible against polarization, O'Rourke's biggest fight consisted of responding to relentless attacks on Cruz, a skilful debater and former Solicitor General.

This combination of qualities is unusual. Dallas-based Democratic State Representative Rafael Anchia favorably compared O'Rourke on the stump to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

"There is only one Beto, but others will emerge," Anchia said. "Allowing people to believe removes the biggest obstacle."