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Why is it so difficult for people who know a little about college football to choose matches against the spread? Even after two consecutive weeks above .500 weeks, my record (44-51-2) still stinks.
My colleagues from The Athletic, Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman, are also on the sub-coin territory.
Do those who have some knowledge think about it too much? Believe me that? Wait, is it even a word?
I'm a bit arrogant after my last two seasons. #Humblebrag alert! I went 55-44-4 last season, bowls included, and 59-42-3 in 2016.
Conclusion: choose fairly long games and you will find yourself around 50-50. Which, of course, corresponds exactly to what sports betting wants: to win money over time.
As always, the choices are against spread (from the VegasInsider.com consensus at 1 pm Wednesday), and the selections are in bold:
Friday game
Nebraska (plus 10) to Iowa: The Cornhuskers feel it, apparently. "I'm looking forward to beating Iowa," said offensive lineman Jerald Foster. "I really can not." The public is not convinced, the line from 7:30 to 10 am. I am convinced enough to take the Huskers and points on Black Friday.
Saturday Games
Michigan (minus 4½) to Ohio State: The ultimate trend against eyeball choice. The Buckeyes are not only 6-0 as outsiders with Urban Meyer, they still won the six games. You've seen how Michigan plays (average scoring margin: 23.1) and how the Buckeyes can not tackle your grandmother. OK, it's time to choose a path. I take the wolverines.
Purdue (minus 4) in Indiana: If you asked me to resume this game directly, I would respond with the emoji to shrug it off. the Hoosiers to get more than a goal in the field? Sign me up.
Illinois (plus 17) to the northwest: Fast story. Ride a ride to Champaign for the 2011 Northwestern-Illinois game. The Illini won 38-35. On the way home, one of the bright orange passengers shouted, "We are 5-0" while I was trying to take a nap. Not cool. Since then, Illinois is a brutal 11-54 in Big Ten games. It can not be a coincidence, right? Go with the Wild cats.
Maryland (plus 13½) at Penn State: An author of the weekly Big Ten coaching call has been trying to spot James Franklin, asking him if he would return to Penn State in 2019. (The USC's rumors are swirling.) Franklin gave a no answer and is then remained quietly silent. Similar to the shore with my picks, you just can not win. I will take the Terps.
Minnesota (plus 10½) in Wisconsin: Was about to write that Jonathan Taylor is getting closer to his second consecutive 2000 yard run. And then I realized that he had finished at 1 977 last season. What is …? Take the badgers anyway.
Rutgers (plus 27) at Michigan State: Jeez, 27 points? Is not this what the Spartans score in a month? And Rutgers has managed to lull his enemies to sleep recently, covering four against the spread.
Last week: 4-3
Season: 44-51-2
Twitter @TeddyGreenstein
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