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A "great reverse migration" of South African Americans to the South of the United States could transform historically the Republican parties of Georgia's capital, Atlanta, from red to blue democrat by the middle of next week, according to experts.
William Frey, demographer and senior scientist at the Brookings Institution, said that one of the keys to this trajectory is the burgeoning county of Gwinnett, located in the suburbs of Atlanta, where many blacks have moved to in recent years.
Gwinnett is a man under close surveillance in the extremely tight battle of Georgian governors, opposing Stacey Abrams, a Democrat who hopes to be the first female African-American governor of the country, and Republican Brian Kemp, who has denied the charges of suppressing voters affecting minorities.
Everyone is wondering if Gwinnett will go to the Democrats, which marks a change in what was one of the most Republican Republican states in the southern United States, or even in all of the United States. United. If this is the case, it could be a warning sign of moves in other states that were not previously battlefields.
"[The county’s] Demographics have changed so much in the last 15 years, "said Frey, explaining that a significant number of African-Americans left the southern United States in the 1970s but are now returning there.
Gwinnett is the second largest county in Georgia; with more than 900,000 residents, it is right behind fervent Democrat Fulton County, the city of Atlanta. But Gwinnett rose from a majority white population in 2000 to a majority black population in 2017, said Frey, author of a recent study on demographic change in the south.
There has also been an increase in Asian and Hispanic populations in the county, but "the black population is going to be the engine of change," he said.
African Americans vote "very, very strongly for the Democrats," said Frey, "especially this year in the governorship elections with an African-American woman in the legislative elections."
According to a Reuters / Ipsos joint poll last week, Abrams and Kemp are neck and neck, the first at 46% and the last at 47%. Another joint poll of local media a week earlier showed the race was deadlocked.
This is a dramatic change from 2014, when incumbent Republican governor Nathan Deal defeated Jason Carter, Jimmy Carter's grandson, with a 52.8% win at 44.8%. Deal garnered 55% of the votes in Gwinnett County.
But in 2016, Hillary Clinton won Gwinnett, making her blue in a presidential race for the first time since Carter took her home country in 1976.
With the potential for change of custody in conservative Georgia, tensions are high.
Kemp is not only the Republican candidate for governorship, but also the Georgian state secretary, who charges him with voter registration and elections.
On Friday, Greg Palast, journalist and director of the Palast Investigative Fund, alleged that Kemp had unduly written off more than 340,000 voters from the state's registration lists. Palast, who sued for documents, said the electors had been purged for moving but had not changed their address.
This is the last allegation against Kemp suppressing voters, which he denied.
Kemp has also been criticized for his "exact match" policy. It is at this point that the voter's application should match – for example, without hyphens, spaces, hyphens or points – with the information listed in the social security or driver's license databases.
Proponents of the program, like Kemp, say it protects the electoral process. Many others disagree, including a coalition of civil rights groups whose laws claim that "this has a disproportionate and negative impact.[s] the possibility for African American, Latino and Asian American candidates eligible to vote to register to vote. "
More than 51,000 voter applicants are "on hold" because of the exact matching protocol, according to the lawsuit, of which 80% were submitted by African American, Latin American and Asian candidates . Less than 10% were submitted by nominees as white.
In a statement posted on the Secretary of State's website, Kemp denied allegations of repression of the voters' vote, calling them "a new frivolous pursuit of militant liberal groups".
The high number of rejected ballot papers, particularly in Gwinnett County, is also of concern. According to voting data posted on the Secretary of State's website, more than 520,000 voters have cast ballots, of which more than 33,000 – about 6% – come from Gwinnett County.
Donald J. Trump
(@RealDonaldTrump)Georgian Secretary of State Brian Kemp will be a great governor. He has been successful in all areas and has been prepared for this very difficult and complex job for many years. He has my strong endorsement. His opponent is totally unqualified. Destroy a great state!
Michael McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida and specializing in the analysis of election data, said that Gwinnett County was responsible for about 40% of releases in the state. They belong "disproportionately to people of color, especially to African-Americans and Americans of Asian descent," he said.
"Every vote counts"
Sam Park searches the manicured lawns of Lawrenceville in Gwinnett County. The Democratic Party's Democratic District 101 representative is one of many solicitors in Gwinnett, particularly keen to get elected to the growing population of young non-white voters. Part of the new wave of migration includes educated and diverse millennia; In Atlanta, the millennial generation of African Americans is the largest minority group. In his 2018 report, The Millennial Generation, Frey said, "In Atlanta, middle-aged blacks would outnumber whites for the first time in 2025".
Park, a 33-year-old Korean American,
is accompanied by his deputy director, Dia Parker, a 24-year-old African-American student. She shakes hands with Sam Gillani, an American entrepreneur from Bangladesh, who is coming out of his garage with his 12-year-old dog Laila Ali.
"I vote for the person, not for the party – but this year, I feel that it's about what is turning around – and we're being ridiculed," Gillani said, adding that he was already preparing to vote for Park, fresh blood representing him. Parker made a quick pin for Abrams too; Gillani said that he was already on board.
For the hour that followed, Park met with two African Americans and a Cambodian American. The woman spoke little English, so Park noted on an app on her phone that he had to come back with an interpreter. Both men promised their votes to Park.
The key question is whether there will be enough people like them for Georgia to turn to the Democrats. Frey thinks it's possible. "One of the reasons is the growing diversity in the Atlanta area," he said, adding that "swinginess" came from suburban metropolitan areas such as Gwinnett.
"There are politicians trying to push the wall of demographics that is getting ready," said Frey. "And they can try to organize some elections to do it. But it's going to be so huge that they will not be able to do it [much longer]. "
Guardian Cities is live in Atlanta for a special series of detailed reports. Share your experiences of the city in the comments below, on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram using #GuardianATL, or by email at [email protected]
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