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BRazilian President-elect, Jair Bolsonaro, offers the hope of a new Latin American government that will join the Trump administration to counteract the influence of socialist regimes in the region and support Trump's pro-Israel and anti-Iranian efforts, conservatives say.
"This is an important, perhaps decisive moment," said James Roberts, researcher at the Heritage Foundation, Washington Examiner. "It's very positive, I think, for Brazil. It's positive for Latin America and, I think, for US-Brazil relations. "
The rise of Bolsonaro, in the light of his incendiary rhetoric, revived the leftist's concerns about the decline of liberal values and the rise of international populism around the world. But the end of the cold war left the world less ideologically divided than on camps of kleptocratic states opposed to states governed by law.
As a result, the Bolsonaro anti-corruption campaign could be a major asset for cooperation with the United States on a series of counter-intuitive foreign policy issues in the region.
"Pro-Iran position? Eduardo, the son of the president-elect, told Bloomberg: "It will change, our side is against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Islamic State".
These comments promise to challenge a significant but often neglected threat of Iranian terrorism in the Western Hemisphere.
"Iran has significantly expanded its presence in South America and Central America, opening up new missions and equipping them with much more people than necessary for normal diplomatic tasks," wrote Matthew Levitt of the United States. Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy, in 2012. "The presence in the southern half of the Western Hemisphere represents a clear and present danger to the security of the United States."
Bolsonaro could also follow President Trump's initiative by moving the Brazilian Embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a sign of solidarity that Trump would like to welcome.
"Every big country that embraces Israel and / or moves the embassy is a huge deal," said a senior Senate official to the Republicans. Washington Examiner. "There is also a more subtle dynamic according to which a BRICS country is one of the countries that practice it. … There are now two of the BRICS countries that are [pro-Israel]. "
In other words, Brazil joins India among the top five "BRICS" emerging market companies – the other three being Russia, China and South Africa – to adopt pro-Israel policies. It is a major deal with a US government that wants trade relations with these developing economies and a long-term partnership to counter Russian and Chinese aggression.
These possibilities were evident even in the scattered summary of Bolsonaro's telephone conversation with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
"The Secretary congratulated Mr. Bolsonaro on his victory and strengthened the dynamic partnership between the United States and Brazil on the basis of our mutual commitment to promoting security, democracy, economic prosperity and human rights. man, "state department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a bulletin released on Monday. . "They discussed collaboration on priority foreign policy issues, including Venezuela, the fight against transnational crime and ways to strengthen economic ties between the United States and Brazil, the two largest economies in the world. 39, Western Hemisphere. "
Talking about democracy and the human may seem unreasonably optimistic for a man who had declared in 1999 that he would "make a coup" when he was elected president. "Today's Congress is useless," he said, according to the New York Times. "Let's do it already. Let's go straight to the dictatorship. "
He said in 2016 that "the mistake of the dictatorship was to torture but not to kill," according to USA Today. He also made a whole series of misogynistic comments, asserting to a political opponent that she "was not worth being raped" and joking that he had a daughter after having four sons because of a "moment of weakness".
But recently, Bolsonaro promised that his government "will be the slave of our constitution," according to The Guardian. And he clearly showed his hostility to one of the most difficult dictatorships in the region.
"You have to play hard with Venezuela," Bloomberg, the son of the elected president, Ed Bloomo, said while calling for elections in the country torn apart by the crisis. "Yes [elections are] not possible, international sanctions. "
Venezuela's descent into chaos brought an influx of refugees to Brazil and its neighbors, contributing to the repression that led Bolsonaro to victory. Politicians of the same situation in other countries, such as the Hungarian Viktor Orban, have surprised Western leaders by their proximity to Russia; nationalists who face the fears of immigration to power tend to share Russian President Vladimir Putin's aversion to international institutions such as the European Union.
And yet, some preliminary signs indicate that Russia views Bolsonaro with skepticism. The Kremlin media praised his victory with speculation that he "could take part in a military operation against the Venezuelan government" at the request of the United States. TASS, the official newspaper of Russia, quoted a Brazilian foreign policy expert who had warned that "it was high time that he [Bolsonaro] the role of China and the BRICS today. "
TASS stressed that "one of the key objectives of the BRICS is to develop a global financial system, which will be independent of current institutions that depend on the dollar".
This reaction is in line with Roberts' expectations that Bolsonaro will help to thwart Russia's progress in Latin America, especially Venezuela.
"It's obvious that they really feel threatened," said the heritage expert at the Washington Examiner. "Putin has made great progress in Venezuela with regard to oil agreements and if these damaging agreements go wrong. … They know that Bolsonaro will not be a toad for Putin. "
This is also true for China, which uses economic investments and "bribes" for leaders "to lead" an empire built on treasure ", as Pompeo recently described China's international spending spree.
"I think it will be great to have another ally against this kind of spread of cronyism and corruption, for both countries," Roberts said. "And for other countries in the region."
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