Bolsonaro's anger policy marks a return to Brazil's past

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The new leader of the largest democracy and economy in Latin America does not care about your feelings. In other words, unless you share his rage against the left, his apparent contempt for women, homosexuals and vulnerable minorities, and his zeal to explode the scleral status quo of his country.

On Sunday, Jair Bolsonaro, 63 He won the second round of the Brazilian presidential election at a canter, comfortably outstripping his left opponent, Fernando Haddad. His victory culminated a bewildering ascent: for more than two decades, the former captain of the army played a political role as a member of Congress in Brasilia, a figure of buffoonery and artificial controversy, the target of jokes .

Now, backed by a decisive electoral mandate and significant parliamentary support, he is on the verge of radically transforming Brazil and its democratic institutions.

By far, Bolsonaro's success may be seen as the most recent and perhaps most emphatic victory of right-wing populism in the West. He and his allies have consciously linked their campaign to President Trump and have maintained regular contact with Stephen Trump's former advisor, Stephen K. Bannon. They insisted on the alleged threat posed by the "cultural marxism" of their opponents, dedicated themselves to a merciless war against the crime, promised to clear the bottom of a corrupt establishment and wrapped themselves up in the flag of the nation.

Voters opted for the Bolsonaro hard line in reaction to the country's economy faltering, crime rising and growing frustration with a political class exposed to a massive corruption scandal. Although a seven-term deputy in Brasilia, Bolsonaro has imposed himself as a nonconformist outsider with the goal of reorganizing the country.

"In this election, it was obvious that someone who could build a credible story of difference would be good. Bolsonaro understood it well, "said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, to my colleagues. "He was politically incorrect, a little weird. But it's a way for him to distinguish himself from others. "

But Brian Winter, editor of Americas Quarterly, wrote on Twitter that Bolsonaro It was not just part of the right-wing wave: "It's an uprising against the power that carried the torch, the deep throat, that led Brazil to the worst economic crisis in the world in 100 years, all by engaging in massive corruption. failing to stop a horrible crime. "

The ascent of Bolsonaro is a reflection of a feverish and polarized moment in Brazilian society. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso – a moderate who, as Bolsonaro said in 1999, should be murdered – observed in an essay for the Washington Post that the populist fire brand had "surfed on a tsunami" of popular anger and despair that swept the Brazilian political system as a whole. A new generation of celebrity lawmakers on YouTube will join Bolsonaro in Brasilia. The elected president would have benefited from massive misinformation campaigns that have spread via social media platforms such as WhatsApp and Facebook.

"Society has lost its old cohesion. Political parties and trade unions, which once gave meaning to political projects and ideologies, no longer enjoy support and solidarity, "said Cardoso. "As a result, people's political choices are often guided by the messages generated by their social networks. And when the corruption of political parties, statesmen and rulers is revealed, anger at politicians eclipses all other concerns. That's exactly what happened here in Brazil. "

Beyond the last three decades of democratic consolidation, Bolsonaro looks back on the dark period of the Brazilian military dictatorship – which reigned between 1964 and 1985, an episode quite close to the history of the country – and finds his inspiration. When he voted in 2016 to dismiss left-wing President Dilma Rousseff, he did so on behalf of the military commander who had chaired him under torture in 1970. He and his allies applauded the The appalling program of the junta has seen the disappearance of countless leftists. , brutalized, raped and murdered.

"Bolsonaro is not the outspoken man who speaks of those whom his supporters claim to be," wrote Brazilian academic Bajo Fogel. "Instead, he is the incarnation of the toughest faction of the military dictatorship that has ruled Brazil for 21 years."

Bolsonaro took a more conciliatory tone after his election victory. As my colleagues have pointed out, some of his supporters have supported him, not because of his speech, but despite this one. "This government will defend the constitution, democracy and freedom. It is a promise that does not come from a party, or the hollow words of a man; it's an oath before God, "he said.

But Bolsonaro is about to miss an ideologically ironic agenda – an agenda that could have a major impact on Brazil, the region and the world. It is determined to cancel or cancel the protections granted by the Brazilian democracy to indigenous peoples and other disadvantaged minorities. Sending to evangelical voters, he could reorganize the school curriculum in favor of "traditional values", while limiting the ability of teachers to express political opinions. The man alleged to be his minister of education is a retired general who defended the right of the army to intervene in politics.

Backed by powerful interests in the agri-food sector, he wants to cancel environmental laws that thwart logging and the expansion of farms in the Amazon basin. It also seeks to defeat the influential leftist movements that support landless and homeless farmers in major cities. Markets have prepared for its privatization plans; Environmentalists warn, however, that the proposed downgrading of Brazil's climate policy would be a disaster for the planet.

His desire to make the gun laws more flexible allowed comparisons to be made with the bloody and self-defense campaign launched by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. "According to government figures, Brazil has one of the most deadly police forces in the world, responsible for more than 5,000 deaths last year," my colleagues said.

Experts fear Zolsonaro zero tolerance policy only deepens culture of impunity. "There is no reason to think that what he proposes will work," Ilona Szabó, director of the Igarapé Institute, a think-tank based in Rio de Janeiro, told La Poste. "Things will get worse. The police will kill more. There will be more extrajudicial killings, especially slum dwellers and blacks. "

More generally, we are still convinced that Brazil's institutions and civil society can resist the demagogic influence of Bolsonaro and that the army, a neutral entity far removed from politics, will remain so. But Bolsonaro's victory brought out painful hatreds and divisions, especially those of class and race. When the newly elected governor of Rio de Janeiro, who campaigned with Bolsonaro's son, was questioned about what he would do with all the alleged criminals of favelas arrested at his post, he promised on Monday that he "Dig more graves".

"I think Brazilians have forgotten what it means to be governed," wrote Brazilian columnist Marcelo Paiva, whose mother and teenage sister were arrested by the military dictatorship and whose father, a socialist politician, was killed and murdered. Bolsonaro could call them back.

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