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Cars
Published on September 8, 2018 |
by Frugal Moogal
September 8, 2018 by Frugal Moogal
I was pleasantly surprised to see Tesla's update coming tonight. I saw the announcement of Jerome Guillen as President of Automotive as a big positive. Guillen is an eight year veteran of Tesla with tons of positive experience. The new general assembly line of Model 3 has been awarded. He seems to have excelled in all the projects he's managed at Tesla.
Although this announcement and the other staff announcements are excellent, I first neglected something interesting. From the email:
"We are about to have the most incredible quarter in our history, building and delivering more than twice as many cars as last quarter."
It's great, but to understand it, you have to do some calculations.
Production and delivery time
In the second quarter, Tesla delivered 40,740 vehicles. 40,740 * 2 = 81,480 vehicles in the third quarter.[[[[Editor's Note: Say what?!?!?!?]
In the first quarter, Tesla sold 21,800 S and X models. In the second quarter, there were 22,300 S and X models.
If the S and X models stay at this level, it means that at least 59,000 models 3 are delivered in the third quarter.
Let's look at a different scenario. In the fourth quarter of 2017, Tesla had the best quarter for S and X model deliveries, with 28,320 vehicles delivered. If these vehicles are delivered again at this high rate, this means that it will take at least 53 160 Model 3 delivered to double the number of cars from one quarter to the next.
Editor's Note: It is unclear whether "the construction and delivery of more than twice as many cars as the last quarter" applies only to total deliveries or if the level of production of T3 will be two times higher than the second quarter. In terms of production, Tesla reported producing 53,339 cars in the second quarter. Double it would be 106,678. It seems highly unlikely that Tesla will reach 107,000 vehicles in the third quarter. We therefore cautiously assume that "build and distribute more than twice as many cars as last quarter" means that third quarter shipments will more than double. .
What math tells us
Tesla's production forecast for Model 3 was 50,000 to 55,000 for the third quarter. In the worst-case scenario for Model 3 production above (which would probably be the best cash flow scenario), Tesla is comfortably in the top half of its forecast and produces more than 4,000 models 3 per week .
In the best case for the production of Model 3, Tesla exceeds its forecast by more than 7%, with more than 4,500 models 3 products per week.
There has been a lot going on at Tesla on Friday. Guillen is perhaps the most important news in the long run, but do not underestimate this implication regarding Tesla's production and sales.
via Obsession EV.
About the author
Frugal Moogal A businessman first, the Frugal Moogal looks at electric vehicles from a company's point of view. Having worked in many sectors and in important money management roles, he thinks the way to convince people that the VE revolution is here is to look at vehicles as a business would.
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