[ad_1]
The rumors came fast, even before polls closed. Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right firebrand with an affection for violent dictatorships, was running away with the race to become president of the world's fourth-largest democracy. In Rio, delighted cheers rank out. Fireworks exploded.
The extent to which the 63-year-old had captured the electorate across Brazil was soon clear. He won 16 of Brazil's 26 states and achieved nearly 60 percent of the vote in Rio de Janeiro and the federal district, Brasília.
His total first-round count of 46 percent saw him outperform polls. Instead, he will now face Fernando Haddad, the leftist stand-in for jailed former President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, in a run-off on Oct. 28. Haddad fell far behind in the first round, with 29 percent of the vote.
The result has left Bolsonaro, to train army captain, on the verge of power. The foremost defender of Brazil's 1964-1985 dictatorship began its ascent in the midst of the country's worst-ever recession and a graft scandal that enveloped all the political class, pitching itself as an outsider against rampant corruption, crime and the media.
He has since repudiated the comments he made in the 1990s after being elected to Congress, calling for the return of military rule and a "civil war" that would kill "about 30,000". tortured thousands.
Bolsonaro's initial notoriety was based on verbal tirades against women, ethnic minorities, gays and leftists. Many of his policies on trade, the environment and deregulation from the playbook of U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he sees as a role model. "Let's make Brazil great! Let's be proud of our homeland once again! "He said on the eve of the vote.
Like Trump, he has pledged to withdraw his country from the Paris Agreement on climate change. He plans to loosen gun control laws and give already trigger-happy police further impunity to kill.
"There is a risk to democracy," says José Alvaro Moisés, a political scientist at the University of São Paulo, who quoted how Bolsonaro had previously said that the work of "eliminating" those who had not yet done so.
"He has an authoritarian stance that is very dangerous," he says. "But it does not mean that he wins," he said. "Congress and the Army would be more likely to add extremist policies, he adds.
Bolsonaro was polling at 15 percent, with negligible support among women, the poor and minorities. Since then, to form president Lula – who was leading the polls – was excluded from the race after a corruption conviction. And Bolsonaro's social-media powered campaign is gaining momentum against better-than-successful opponents, accelerating after the candidate was stabbed and seriously injured at a campaign rally on Sept. 6.
In the final week of the campaign Bolsonaro's support expanded from an initial base of rich, educated, white, older men to include many more young people and poorer voters, according to Rosana Pinheiro-Machado, an anthropology professor at the Federal University of Santa Maria who studies his supporters. In some cases, she says, churches have been encouraging to vote for him.
A third to a half of Bolsonaro voters are deeply passionate about him, she says. "They are his fans, they love him, they cry to him, they will go to meet him at airports. This runs through all social classes. It's an electoral phenomenon. "
All of the analysts said they would have had a difficult task of converting voters who had already chosen Bolsonaro. "They will need to persuade some of their voters," says Maurício Santoro, a political science professor at the Rio de Janeiro State University. "But there is such widespread rejection of the Workers' Party."
That party has won the last four presidential elections but has become indelibly linked to scandal corruption, known as Operation Car Wash. Prosecutors alleged Brazil's government has run like a cartel for years, with billions of dollars stolen from public coffers.
One former president, Lula, is serving a 12-year sentence for corruption. Another, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached in 2016 and last night to a seat in her home state. Lula says his belief is an abuse of process.
"It is important for the establishment to hear this message," Santoro adds. "Many voters blame the economic crisis on corruption. The narrative is the politicians stole all the money. "
If elected on Oct. 28, Bolsonaro will deal with a more advanced view of these elections. His once tiny Social Liberal Party, which has been elected to deputy out of 513 years ago, now has 52 – making it the second largest party in the chamber. "We are seeing a conservative wave with an underlying desire for the renewal of politics," Moisés says.
Bolsonaro now has the makings of a powerful coalition, including agribusiness, evangelical churches, and financial institutions. in favor of liberalizing markets and privatization.
"Congress will be more conservative with an extreme-right contingent that we have never had before," says Sylvio Costa, the founder of the Congress in Focus Watchdog. "Whether he wins the election or not, he has already won. Politically speaking, he is already much stronger. "
In the interview with TIME, Bolsonaro said he has shed his anti-democratic views. Indeed, he said, the real threat to democracy comes from the left turning Brazil into Venezuela.
"We do not have radical ideas," he added. "They are rational ideas."
– With reporting by Shanna Hanbury
