Brazilian markets have been hoping for Bolsonaro's victory. Can he deliver?


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With lower interest rates, low inflation and a backlog of market investments once the elections are over, the economy will almost certainly recover, predicted Mr Mufarej. But that might not last long, he said.

"It will be a honeymoon," he said.

But, he added, "If structural measures are not implemented, such as pension reform and tax reform, 2020 will be a completely different story."

Analysts warn that without drastic measures, debt could reach unsustainable levels over the next two years, leaving the government unable to finance itself and plunging the economy into recession.

In Brazil, workers retire on average at 55 and earn 70% of their last salary. Social security accounts for one-third of all state spending, which has contributed to record budget deficits. This makes pension reform one of the most difficult challenges the new president will face.

While Mr. Guedes has repeatedly promised to pass an unpopular move by Congress, Bolsonaro has again sent contradictory signals.

"We can not penalize those who have already acquired rights," Bolsonaro said of the reform project in a recent interview. "We can play with things, we have ideas and proposals in this direction, but no one will be penalized."

The markets are optimistic: its composition will change once the campaign is over.

"The problem is not the political direction," said Chris Garman, Eurasia Group's Brazilian expert, noting that Bolsonaro had met with dozens of economists over the past year, at the looking for someone with the proper liberal skills. "The problem is, how much can they do?"

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