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A significant severe weather threat unfolds southwest of the Tennessee Valley region this Halloween night, but the weather holds out just fine for Trick-or-Treating in North Alabama: breezy and mild, temperatures holding close to 70ºF through 10 PM, and a slim chance of a few spotty showers especially over Northwest Alabama (Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Marion, Lawrence and Limestone Counties in Alabama and Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles Counties in Southern Tennessee).
Thursday’s severe weather threat in North Alabama and Tennessee looks low; the Storm Prediction Center’s *MARGINAL RISK* outlines a low risk of an isolated severe storm within a broader area of rain and wind moving into the area Thursday morning through midday: wind gusts to 50 miles per hour are possible, some locally-heavy rain produces up to 1.5” of rainfall in spots.
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- Be ready for whatever comes by reviewing your severe weather plan.
- Make sure you have batteries for your NOAA Weather Radio and that you have Live Alert 19!
on your mobile device (and that it is using your current location for warnings) - Don’t turn your back on the weather; keep up with the latest on TV, here on WHNT.com and Live Alert 19!
What to expect: Widespread rain moves out of Mississippi into Alabama’s western counties after 3 AM. The wind picks up ahead of that band of rain and storms: gusting as high as 35-50 miles per hour even with no rain in the area.
- 3AM to 6AM: Rain and wind overspread the western part of North Alabama and Southern Tennessee. It will be blustery and wet, and a few storms embedded in the larger band of rain could briefly turn severe.
- 6AM to 10AM: Rain and storms slowly move east toward the Huntsville-Decatur-Athens area. Expect wind gusts up to 45 MPH, locally-heavy rainfall, and a low chance that some of the storms could grow severe.
- 10AM to 1PM: The band of storms moves through Northeast Alabama with strong winds – especially in the higher elevations – and a low chance of a brief severe storm.
Southern storms on Thursday: The line of storms moving into Alabama early Thursday morning is stronger to the south – near the Gulf Coast – and weaker to the north. Those southern storms tend to reduce the threat here in North Alabama and Tennessee, but it doesn’t necessarily eliminate it.
Why does that happen? Those storms block the ‘good’ flow of humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, and if they’re especially strong, they can create some sinking air around them. That helps suppress storms as well.
-Jason
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