‘Brexit’ Draft Deal: British Cabinet to Meet

• A key sticking point is the Irish border, a contentious issue for which there is no easy solution as negotiators try to figure out a way to allow people and goods to pass through without the imposition of a hard border.

Predictions and prognostication from the British press

The Daily Mail called it “judgment day,” and the Daily Telegraph a “moment of truth.” The Times of London, meanwhile, wrote that Prime Minister Theresa May had been “accused of betrayal” over her plans for Brexit.

On Wednesday the British press was dominated by reports of Mrs. May’s draft Brexit deal and speculation about what might happen when her senior ministers meet.

But the Sun, one of the loudest advocates of Brexit, predicted that there would be sound — but not too much fury — from hard-line Brexiteers within Mrs. May’s cabinet.

UK front pages on #Brexit draft deal #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/285rvtzB4H

—
Philip Bromwell (@philipbromwell)
Nov. 13, 2018

The tabloid reported that the most senior pro-Brexit ministers would fall into line when the cabinet meets for what is expected to be a long, pivotal meeting.

But it believes that some cabinet resignations from less high-profile cabinet ministers who support Brexit are possible — something that would embarrass Mrs. May, though probably not wreck her leadership.

Those expected to stick by Mrs. May include the influential Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab; Environment Secretary Michael Gove; Transport Secretary Chris Grayling; and the commons leader, Andrea Leadsom. More recent recruits to the Brexit cause — Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, and Home Secretary Sajid Javid — are also likely to support the prime minister, reported the Sun’s political editor, Tom Newton Dunn.

“The Sun understands that none of the key players are expected to resign today, with all grudgingly agreeing to go along with her plan at least for now,” he reports, although he was less confident that the development secretary, Penny Mordaunt, would remain.

The Sun reported that Ms. Mordaunt asked Mrs. May to suspend collective government responsibility when the deal comes to the Parliament. That would allow ministers to vote against government policy, which cabinet ministers normally defend.

Another cabinet minister on resignation-watch is Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary.

Mark Francois, a lawmaker and deputy chairman, of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, told the BBC that a majority in the cabinet would support the deal, but he added that it was possible that there would be resignations.

The BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, described the atmosphere in Downing Street as “edgy.” Cabinet ministers would have to consider not just whether they can accept the deal, she said, but whether Parliament will, and what course to pursue if they conclude there is insufficient support among lawmakers.

Photo

Theresa May and her Brexit deal have an Irish problem

Mrs. May’s Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, so her government relies on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which voiced opposition to the deal before it was even made public.

On Wednesday, the D.U.P.’s leader Arlene Foster was traveling to London and, from the tone of her statement late Tuesday, she is not happy with the emerging deal.

Jeffrey Donaldson, one of the D.U.P’s senior lawmakers went further, telling the BBC on Wednesday that, from the details he has heard the draft Brexit deal “undermines the constitutional and economic integrity” of the United Kingdom, and warning that he was not afraid of precipitating a general election by opposing the plan.

The Conservatives hold 315 seats in the House of Commons, short of the 326 needed for a majority, and Mrs. May needs the tacit support of the D.U.P., which has 10 seats and campaigned for Brexit (which a majority of Northern Ireland voters opposed).

The most sensitive aspect of the plan is the so-called “backstop” to prevent physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.

From what is known of the draft, Britain would stay temporarily in a customs union with the European Union until a long-term trade deal is negotiated. But the obligations on Northern Ireland would be deeper, particularly in obeying standards laid down by the European Union’s single market, leading to increased regulatory checks on goods flowing from Britain to Northern Ireland.

That is seen as an almost existential threat by the D.U.P., which wants to remain part of the United Kingdom.

For the D.U.P., voting against Mrs. May’s deal risks precipitating a general election that could bring to power Jeremy Corbyn, the opposition Labour Party leader who has a history of strong ties to Sein Fein, which promotes a united Ireland.

The D.U.P. might be less worried about the other possible outcomes of blocking Mrs. May’s plan, such as a no-deal Brexit, and might conclude that this could strengthen ties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. It might also calculate that another referendum that reversed Brexit and kept the status quo would be less objectionable than Mrs. May’s deal.

— STEPHEN CASTLE

Before the prime minister has her say, the backlash begins

Even before Mrs. May’s draft Brexit deal was published, or her government had made any public statement in its defense, the backlash was well underway in Parliament, with hard-line Conservative Brexit supporters condemning it in statements and television interviews.

The hard-liners argue that the deal would leave Britain subject to E.U. rules, but without having any say in making those rules. They are also alarmed that Britain would not have a unilateral right to quit the temporary customs union.

Mrs. May’s own former Brexit secretary, David Davis, describing the deal on Twitter as “EU domination, imprisonment in the customs union and 2nd class status,” and adding that “Cabinet and all Conservative MPs should stand up, be counted and say no to this capitulation.”

As she left meetings at 10 Downing Street on Wednesday, Penny Mordaunt, the minister for international development, refused to answer reporters who asked whether she supported the plan.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, a hard-core Brexit supporter and longtime critic of the government’s negotiating strategy, told the BBC that the proposed deal was “a failure of the government’s negotiating position and a failure to deliver on Brexit.”

— STEPHEN CASTLE

For Brexit, a watery new catchphrase

To the canon of Brexit metaphors — the divorce, the cliff’s edge, the cake-eating — negotiators have added another: the swimming pool.

Inscrutable as it may be, that’s how diplomats in Brussels are describing a crucial piece of the Brexit deal: the decision on how closely Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be yoked to the European market if Britain and the European Union cannot negotiate a long-term trade deal after Brexit, the journalist Robert Peston reported.

This swimming pool has two levels. Northern Ireland would be in the deep end, up to its nose in European regulations. That would keep trading frictionless with Ireland, which is staying in the European Union, preventing the return of an Irish border.

But Great Britain would be in the shallow end. It would stay in the European customs union, like Northern Ireland, but escape the single market for goods. That would give it some distance from the bloc’s regulations but still prevent it from striking its own trade deals with non-European countries.

Still with us?

The division between deep and shallow ends of the pool could be a deal-breaker.

It would mean different trading rules within the United Kingdom, and the prospect of a border — however meaningless European negotiators insist it would be — in the Irish Sea.

—BENJAMIN MUELLER

Continue reading the main story