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Theresa May has a huge Brexit battle in her own conservative party
This will be an important moment in European history when the 28 European leaders meet in Brussels to finalize the withdrawal of the UK from the bloc on Sunday.
No Member State has ever left the European Union before and this summit – two years and five months after the referendum on Brexit in the UK – is the culmination of months of difficult negotiations. But what will happen and is it really the end?
What are they on?
There are two documents.
The agreement of retraction
The so-called divorce part: a legally binding 585-page international law that sets out the terms for leaving the UK on March 29, 2019.
It is important to note that it also provides for a transition period that begins the same day that Britain leaves the country and lasts until December 31, 2020, although it can be extended until the end of the year. At the end of 2022. It also has a "backstop", which allows to determine if the UK has negotiated a new relationship with the EU by the end of the transition, that It will remain in the customs union of the bloc, in order to avoid the creation of a border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.
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The political declaration
This is the roadmap for relations between the UK and the EU after Brexit. Much shorter (26 pages) and not legally binding, the declaration calls for an "ambitious, broad, deep and flexible partnership between trade and economic cooperation, law enforcement and criminal justice, foreign policy, security and defense and wider areas of cooperation.
It is long on the suction but very short on the details.
What does the EU27 think about Brexit?
Although they are generally – but not always – too polite to say, they all think that the UK is making a historic mistake.
The political declaration clearly indicates, as the European Union has long said since the referendum, that the United Kingdom will not have as good relations with the EU outside the club as within it. On the whole, most of them only want the Brexit to be finished, although some countries are worried about specific problems, such as fishing rights in British waters, and Spain wants to have its word to say about Gibraltar.
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AFP
Spain worries about Gibraltar's status after Brexit
More about Brexit:
Why is it important for Theresa May?
Apart from the obvious – getting an agreement on both documents – for Theresa May, everything is in the dynamics. She hopes that the weight of EU27 approval, including personalities such as German Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, will convince British politicians that it 's safe. is a very big problem, of international dimension.
She is therefore more worried about selling it at home than abroad?
Absolutely – this may be the most difficult sale a British politician has had since 1945.
The contract of Theresa May is hated by the starters and the remaining players. Indeed, it is rare that a policy of such historical importance is so unloved to so many people.
For the Brexiteers, the agreement keeps the UK far too close to the EU, while other MPs fear the opposite and consider the deal as infinitely worse than membership. The question is whether members can learn to live with his Brexit projects, if not to love them.
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When will we know if it succeeds?
It is thought that the big vote in the British Parliament could take place in the second week of December.
The numbers do not look good for Theresa May, is not it?
US President Lyndon Baines Johnson (LBJ) said the first policy rule was to be able to count.
Although there are 650 MPs, for various reasons, some of them, like the President, do not vote, so the magic number of Ms. May's victory is 320.
However, there are only 315 Conservative MPs and the BBC estimates that nearly 60 of the total number of Brexiteers in the party and 14 remaining MEPs will probably vote against it. She also seems to have lost the support of the 10 MPs from the Northern Ireland party on which she is relying to get big votes, the DUP.
And of course, all the opposition parties said they would vote against it.
Could the agreement still pass?
If you look at the numbers above, and how badly the agreement is, it seems unlikely. But that could happen.
Do not forget:
- Time is running out for Britain's departure
- Companies will put pressure on MPs to put an end to uncertainty
- MPs know that many voters just want them to continue on their way
- A lot of tension and persuasion on the part of party directors
- Fear of alternatives to voting yes
What are these alternatives if the agreement is rejected?
Nobody is certain, but here are some of the options:
- She tries again a few weeks later, hoping that MPs will be so worried about the turmoil in the financial markets after a negative vote that they will change their minds.
- The UK leaves without an agreement, which, according to most, would be catastrophic
- A second referendum, of which many MPs fear that Britain is even more divided than it is already
- Theresa May or another conservative leader might try another agreement
- Another general election.
A health warning on such forecasts: it is important to say that if the British policy is already in unknown waters, a negative vote could return them completely from the navigation chart.
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EPA
Demonstrations for and against Brexit in London: voters remain highly divided
Do other politicians have pity on Ms. May?
Even his political opponents, who for the moment include most British politicians, have sympathy for her. Most admire his astonishing resilience and stubbornness, even if they think that the disorder is partly his fault.
And the voters?
Like politicians, many voters seem to have a furtive admiration for Ms. May's determination and are a little sorry for her. It's not that pity is necessarily a good look for a politician.
Opinion polls suggest that people do not like it, but think that no other leader could get a better one. But what should perhaps worry Theresa May, is that polls also suggest that, if they were forced to choose, more people would prefer another referendum to accept her agreement.
Could the mood of the public be changing as Ms. May hopes to end at least this part of Brexit?
