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British Prime Minister Theresa May's plans for a Brexit deal with the EU seem more precarious than ever.
Less than 20 weeks before Britain's planned departure from the European Union, it is not clear whether an agreement it negotiates with the bloc would get support from its own cabinet, let alone the British Parliament.
This means that almost all possible Brexit outcomes remain at stake: a chaotic Brexit without agreement that, according to officials, could lead to blockages in ports and shortages of food and medicine, to a another referendum, which could reverse the trend. Brexit.
The prospects of a satisfactory deal in London became even more unpredictable on Friday with the resignation of Education Minister, pro-European Jo Johnson.
Mr Johnson, a young transport minister whose anti-EU brother, Boris, resigned as Foreign Secretary in July, called for a second referendum, saying the decision to leave the EU taken in the June 2016 referendum was based on a false prospectus. The choice that Ms. May will propose, he says, is between "vassalage and chaos".
The resignation of Mr. Johnson reinforces the fragility of the Prime Minister's strategy, emphasizing that it is surrounded by the pro-EU and anti-EU groups of his conservative party.
However, the battle of London can only be reached if there is an agreement with the EU, which is not yet the case. On Monday, intensive negotiations in Brussels between the EU and UK negotiators were under way, having lasted until 14:45 the previous night.
A British official said that an agreement should be reached Wednesday night for the convening of a special EU summit this month, which now seems unlikely.
Without a November summit, the deal would focus on an EU summit scheduled for December 13 and 14 in Brussels, likely postponing the battle to the British Parliament in January. Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders said Monday that he was hoping for progress "before Christmas".
The stumbling block in the negotiations remains the question of how to deal with the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, which will remain in the UK. 39, inside the EU.
The United Kingdom is expected to leave the European Union in March 2019. But despite more than two years of negotiations, they still can not agree on the conditions for their separation. The WSJ explains the main points of contention before a series of crucial negotiations. Image: Reuters
Although it seems obvious, the outcome of these negotiations will be
shape future UK-wide relations with the EU and could have a significant impact on Britain's future internal cohesion.
The UK said it hoped that the future trade agreement would ensure such close ties between the UK and the EU, so that customs and other controls will no longer be needed at the Irish border. . The stumbling block in the negotiations concerns an insurance policy – the so-called Irish support – if such an agreement is not concluded.
The background is that the UK will remain indefinitely within the EU Customs Union until further arrangements, possibly involving new technologies, are put in place to prevent a new one. border.
Anti-EU lawmakers contend that this could leave the UK in the EU customs zone indefinitely and want to make sure that the UK can unilaterally withdraw. The EU says that if the UK can withdraw when it wants, it is not an effective insurance policy.
Anti-Brexit protesters waving placards while Northern Irish politicians speak Monday in central London.
Photo:
daniel leal-olivas / Agence France-Presse / Getty Images
"If we put an end to any temporary arrangement, it will have to be a bilateral decision, both from the EU27 and from the UK. And we need to know at this time what kind of solution exists for the Irish border, "said Monday the French Minister of European Affairs, Nathalie Loiseau.
Given that the UK could come out of the customs union, EU negotiators have insisted on a new fallback solution – the "backstop backstop" – which would keep Northern Ireland in the economic orbit of the EU, a solution that would create trade barriers between the United Kingdom
This perspective is anathema to Pro-Brexit lawmakers, who also oppose the conditions that the EU would impose on further membership of the customs union. These stress in particular that fair rules must exist between UK and EU companies, which would allow the UK to stick to EU rules on issues such as EU policies. state aid, labor and environment. It could also leave the UK bound by EU fisheries policies.
"The customs union is an option, but care must be taken not to create any unjust relationship between the EU27 and the UK," said Michael Roth, German Minister for European Affairs.
"There must be a real safety net, not a fake."
The support proposals alienate lawmakers and pro-Brexit ministers, who believe that too much has already been conceded to the EU, as well as to the pro-British. Northern Ireland legislators of the Democratic Unionist Party, of which Mrs May depends for her majority in Parliament.
Assuming she reaches an agreement, Ms. May would assure Parliament that the support of the Customs Union will be temporary, if any, and that "support support" will never be invoked.
It must then convince the majority of British legislators who voted that the only realistic alternative to its contract – a Brexit without a contract – would be a disaster for which the British public would not forgive them.
Max Colchester contributed to this article.
