[ad_1]
Copyright of the image
Pennsylvania
One has the impression that Westminster is tipping towards an unprecedented modern political crisis.
Soon, perhaps during the second week of December, the House of Commons will debate and then vote on a government motion to approve the EU withdrawal agreement and the political declaration that will take place. 39; accompanies. The conditions of leaving the UK from the EU.
But for the moment, it seems that Theresa May is facing incredibly difficult work.
She runs a government with a working-class majority of 13 people. Only seven conservative rebels are needed to defeat him.
But according to the latest statistics from BBC researchers, 81 conservative MPs have expressed opposition to the agreement that May hopes to sign Sunday with European leaders.
With the Labor Party, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and perhaps even the DUP ready to vote against the motion as well, the withdrawal agreement should be torpedoed in the House of Commons.
From now on, Theresa May will insist in an exhaustive way on the fact that the agreement is in the national interest and is the only way to guarantee the realization of Brexit.
But if the withdrawal agreement is rejected, what happens then?
No road ahead?
That's the burning question in Westminster and everyone has their opinion.
This week, the new Secretary of Labor and Retirement, Amber Rudd, said the House of Commons "will not end any deal."
Phantom Chancellor John McDonnell said that it was "very difficult to predict the end result".
And the former Conservative government minister (and now partisan of another referendum), Justine Greening, said that there was "no majority for a way forward."
This may be true but does not solve the huge political problem that MPs will encounter if the agreement is rescinded.
To leave without agreement
Crucially, the default position in this scenario would be that the UK leaves without agreement.
Under European law and the UK withdrawal law, Brexit Day is on the agenda for 29 March 2019 at 11pm.
It is at this point that the EU treaties will cease to apply in the UK.
If Parliament rejects the agreement, the same law on withdrawals sets out what the government must do next.
Ministers would have up to 21 days to make a statement in the House of Commons on "how they plan to proceed".
The government would then have another seven days to present a motion in the House of Commons, allowing members to make their views known about the government's plan of action.
But what is crucial is that members would not have the opportunity to put a brake on a Brexit without negotiation if that was what the government wanted to do.
The motion would probably not be amendable any more than its defeat would have the legal force to prevent the UK from leaving without an agreement next March.
Instead, the government should introduce new legislation in Parliament and get approval from members of Parliament if it did not want the UK to leave without an agreement.
As House of Commons Secretary Sir David Natzler told a committee of MPs last month, "no House procedure can defeat the law, the law is overturned by law".
- Can we get an agreement on Brexit via Commons?
Try again
Copyright of the image
Pennsylvania
Sir David Natzler (sitting at the front left) declares that MEPs could vote again
But in addition to the rigid legal situation, there would be frantic political reality.
The maximum delay of three weeks between the defeat of the government agreement and the requirement for ministers to propose a way forward would involve several alternative scenarios.
The Prime Minister could make a second attempt to get the withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons.
Sir David Natzler stated that, procedurally, this would be possible.
"The words could be the same but the underlying reality would obviously be different," said Sir David.
Brussels could be persuaded to refine the political declaration on future relations in order to address the concerns of MEPs.
Another referendum
Copyright of the image
Getty Images
But with the communes so divided in its various objections, would it make a big difference?
The panic in the markets could be even more serious, which could change the ideas in Parliament.
Alternatively, members could suddenly engage massively in the idea of a new referendum to break the parliamentary impasse and open the possibility of stopping Brexit.
At present, about eight Conservative MPs and 44 Labor MPs have publicly pledged to hold another referendum.
Labor Party leadership has said that all options should remain on the table (including another referendum) and that the SNP and the Liberal Democrats have said that there should be one.
However, a second referendum can only take place if the government presents a bill to organize one and if a majority in the House of Commons supports it.
Theresa May is opposed to another referendum and it is difficult to find another conservative leader taking over.
A general election
Copyright of the image
Getty Images
But maybe there will be a general election instead?
This is Labor's favorite result for rejecting the transaction.
The Fixed-term Parliament Act allows for the election of general elections by confidence motions in the House of Commons.
But as Dr. Jack Simson Caird of the Bingham Law Center says for the rule of law, "With the countdown to Article 50, it's very difficult to see that this represents a solution to the problem. problem".
This will be the other critical factor at stake.
Unless the government is asking for an extension of the bargaining period (and number 10 has excluded it), the time given to Parliament and the government to agree on a way forward is incredibly tight.
The clock will not wait.
"Negotiated agreement"
Copyright of the image
Getty Images
Another idea that has been put forward is a "negotiated agreement" in which the UK would ask the EU for a one – year (paid) membership extension before leaving on the terms of the agreement. 39, World Trade Organization.
Some Brexiteers might like the idea, but it is difficult to see Parliament support such an approach – with or without an explicit vote.
Because Parliament will have to be heard.
As Maddy Thimont Jack of the Institute for Government thinks, "we have parliamentary sovereignty and there are obvious ways for Parliament to express a very strong political point of view.
"I do not see how a government can carry out a legislative program without an agreement, for example, if you do not have the support of Parliament."
Theresa May may have neutralized the chances of defeat in the House of Commons if she had found a parliamentary consensus on Brexit that she had planned to negotiate early in the process.
Instead, she will face three difficult weeks and a vote that will define the future of the country for many years.
At the present time, it seems that the government's agreement can not be adopted by the House of Commons.
But the atmosphere in Westminster could change quickly in the current pandemonium.
