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The "Thursday Night Football" edition of Week 7 features two of the top 10 picks in the 2018 NFL Draft, and we will actually have the chance to see them both on the field at the same time.
Some thought the Denver Broncos might be interested in a quarterback at the top of the repechage, but when Bradley Chubb fell on his knees, John Elway and his company pulled the trigger and sentenced Von Miller to a crime. A few choices later, the Cardinals traded in against a quarter, making Josh Rosen the fourth passer of the table after Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen.
Rosen has shown some interesting talent flashes this season, including the ability to slide the ball in passing windows. He looks like the kind of player who could run Arizona for a long time. The Broncos, meanwhile, should look for a new quarter after this season, as the signing of Case Keenum's standalone agent has not worked as well as expected.
Of course, what happened during the first six weeks of the year may or may not have a big impact on what will happen this Thursday (8:20 pm, NFL Network, Fox, streaming on FUBO). Will Rosen or Keenum lead their team to victory?
When the broncos have the ball
The Broncos offense has been extremely inconsistent throughout the season, largely due to the highs and lows of quarterback Keenum. Denver is arguably the worst NFL quarterback in 2017, with Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler completing 59% of their passes at 6.5 yards per attempt while throwing 19 touchdowns against 22 steals. . After Keenum's fantastic season in Minnesota, the Broncos targeted him early in the free spell and awarded him a substantial contract, assuming it would represent an obvious improvement over the trio party. Six games in the year, it is not entirely clear that this is the case (I am really sorry for that).
Prior to last season, Keenum was shown, at best, as a less than average starter. Most of the time, it looked more like a vaguely capable backup. But by teaming up with Pat Shurmur, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph, he shone during much of the 2017 campaign. His play in 2018 made him look a lot more like the player than he was before last year.
| Year | Team | Comp% | YPA | TD% | INT% | RTG |
| 2013-2016 | HOU / RAM | 58.4 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 78.4 |
| 2017 | MIN | 67.6 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 98.3 |
| 2018 | LAIR | 63.1 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 80.5 |
Keenum did not show much chemistry with any non-Emmanuel Sanders receiver, and he had a hard time throwing the ball at the back of the pitch. Keenum has only 20 points out of 41 for a total of 591 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, according to Sports Info Solutions. Compare that to last year, when he was 44 on 103 for 1118 yards, eight touchdowns and three choices. It has already surpassed the interception total of last year for this type of pass, while the number of its smugglers has gone from 94.9 to 71.5.
Von Miller's bold prediction
The defense against Arizona's pass has been strong this season, especially against the deep pass. No NFL team has been as good against passing over 15 meters in the air, according to the DVOA Football Outsiders. Arizona was a little willing to concede the short pass in order to attack, and the Broncos might have to be content to try and move the ball that way rather than looking for big games.
While Keenum struggled this year, the Broncos rookie play went off well. Third round choice Royce Freeman and free agent Phillip Lindsay formed a strong back-to-back duo, with each player averaging more than 4.7 yards per race. Together, they totaled 119 times for a total of 618 yards and four goals, and the Broncos lead the NFL in yards per game and rank 10th in yards per game despite being 21st overall.
Lindsay is the most versatile of the two players and seems to be the preferred return in passing situations, but Freeman has demonstrated a strong ability to break tack and generate yards after contact. His 15 NFL third-place finishes behind Melvin Gordon and Chris Carson rank third. His break-up rate broken every 3.8 carries is the second best result among the 70 NFL players who ran the ball at least 20 times. The Cardinals had 17 broken tackle attempts by pitting the semis this season, one of the highest numbers in the NFL. Freeman's power match could therefore be more important than usual in this game.
When the cardinals have the ball
Only one NFL team has scored fewer points than the Cardinals this season and it was placed at the back by Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen. It does not really matter. Arizona struggled to defend Sam Bradford and has since switched to rookie Josh Rosen. Even with Rosen under center, the Cardinals failed to accumulate 300 yards in a single game, making them one of two teams to break through.
Arizona's problems have been many, but the lack of creativity in the use of half-star David Johnson is a source of their extreme impossibility to move the ball so consistently. Johnson is one of the NFL's most versatile players as a 6-foot-1, 224-pound runner who has the ability to run and capture a wide receiver, but the Cardinals have largely been content with middle and throw him simple swings and circles rather than moving him into the formation and getting him into an open space.
Johnson also raced in stacked boxes, with 68 of his 92 races coming when the defense had seven or more players in the box, according to Sports Info Solutions. This 74% rate is slightly higher than its 2016 season, when 68% of its points were against men over the age of seven in the surface. These races were even less effective this season than they were then, while his average yards per run on these games went from 4.05 to 3.13.
Without Johnson at his best, the Cardinals' pass game has been placed in unattractive situations many times. Bradford was unable to do anything when he was on the field and, although Rosen was better, he was also prone to rookie mistakes. Rosen shot at least the ball less than Bradford, allowing the Cardinals to create missing games that were sorely needed early in the year. Only 14 of Bradford's 80 pass attempts were 15 yards or more in the air, and he completed just six of those passes for 154 yards, two touchdowns and three picks. Rosen, meanwhile, threw 23 of her 90 pass attempts for more than 15 rushing yards, completing 10 for 296 yards and two goals. Rosen trusts rookie compatriot Christian Kirk, who has 13 catches for 190 yards and a three-run score.
It's still extremely difficult to move the ball against Denver in the air, even after the team traded Aqib Talib in the final off season. Chris Harris Jr. remains one of the first corners of the NFL, and the passing rush led by Von Milled can still hit home. The Broncos have struggled to hold tight ends in the passing game, and if Rosen and Ricky Seals-Jones can be on the same length as during most of last week's match against Vikings, big games could be played in the middle. of the field.
Nevertheless, the best way to move the ball on the Broncos is on the field, and this seems to be the one thing the Cardinals are the most unable to do. The clever money lies in the fact that Arizona is struggling to get off offensive, leaving everything on Rosen's right shoulder. And this is not a great situation in which Miller and his company are attacking a young QB.
Forecast: Broncos 23, Cardinals 14
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