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Throughout the season, we will check which major trends in the NBA are real or not.
First place: Are the unbeaten Denver Nuggets more frightening enemies for the Golden State Warriors than the Houston Rockets? And will Anthony Davis's New Orleans Pelicans remain the NBA's best offensive?
Buy or sell: Nuggets are a bigger threat to warriors than rockets.
Divide this statement into two parts:
1. Are the Nuggets a legitimate contender this season?
2. Are Rockets no longer completely at this level?
I sell on it. Last season, the Rockets finished 16 games better than any other Western Conference team that was not named the Warriors, while posting the best points differential in the NBA. From this team, they lost two big wings in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah at Moute – valuable contributors, although they finished respectively 61st and 103rd in real plus-minus defensive (RPM). Four games – including a duel against the Pelicans and two losses without Chris Paul – should not be enough to believe that the Rockets are about to move from a defender among the seven defenses of last season to a much lower level. the average.
This Houston team still has its centerpieces and should recover a gap on the squads of non-warriors from the West.
That said, I buy the Nuggets as legitimate contenders to have the advantage of the first round on the pitch, even though they missed the playoffs last season.
Denver is built around one of the best NBA players in Nikola Jokic. Jokic was a marvel at the minute as a rookie and maintained his brilliant impact with more minutes, finishing fifth in the NBA RPM last season.
He is the focal point of the Nuggets' offensive, often playing center-point, and his perfect triple-double on Saturday – 35 points (11-11 FG), 11 rebounds, 11 assists, four interceptions, one block and zero turnovers – was not a coincidence. This is a versatile offensive threat, fueling an attack ranked in the top six offensive rankings over the past two seasons.
Of course, the biggest difference for this team came in defense. After finishing 25th and 29th in team defense over the last two seasons, the Nuggets are now in second place.
One of the reasons for this improvement is the health of Paul Millsap, who finished in the top 15 in RPM's defensive general standings in his last two seasons as a Hawks member before his injuries limited him to 38 games at the time. his first year in Denver. Now healthy, he gives the Nuggets a strong defensive anchor to build on. They posted an incredible 88.6 defensive score with Millsap in the field. That goes to 106.1 when he is absent – and 106.1 would still be in the top 11 among all the teams at the moment.
A regression is surely to come. The question is how much? According to Second Spectrum's tracking data, the Nuggets are forcing the toughest looks into sixth place in the NBA. But that's part of a small sample, and 34.4% of the opposing shots were scored on 3 open or wide open – fifth place in the league, according to advanced statistics from the NBA. The fact that Denver keeps his opponents under 31% shooting deep is probably attributed to a random character that needs to be corrected.
Nevertheless, bring back the Nuggets to a medium defense and their durable attack keeps them competitive. If they are legitimately above average – a possibility with a healthy Millsap – this team can then challenge 55 to 60 wins.
Overall, it's a non-aggressive sales campaign. The Nuggets are among the top four potential teams in the West, but they have to prove they have a stable level of defense before becoming true Warrior challengers at the Rockets.
Buy or Sell: Pelicans can maintain the best attack of the NBA.
The Pelicans averaged 132 points per game and 122.2 points for 100 possessions, the top two NBA ratings. They obtained these numbers through a unique offensive approach that includes three great men as top scorers and the most reliable 3-point shooter, with two guards who pushed the pace and distributed the rock. They roll without marking the typical perimeter of the NBA today.
Some aspects of this beginning are enduring, such as the fast pace (currently fourth, having led the NBA last season) and the offensive imbalances created in the front by the MVP candidate Anthony Davis, the perimeter threat Nikola Mirotic and the big Julius Randle combo.
But the current level of offensive excellence – no team has had an offensive score of more than 115 in the past decade – is likely to slip as the schedule grows. The first three games of the Pélicans were played against the Sacramento Kings (27th in the defensive classification last season), against the Clippers of Los Angeles (20th) and against the lazy Rockets.
Mirotic (33.1 points per 36 minutes, 64.5% live fire) and Randle (28.8 points per 36 minutes, 64.4% live fire) record career rates and gigantic efficiencies, which are almost regress. Even Davis – who could actually keep marks close to his 30.9 points every 36 minutes at 66.0 successful shots – should not fear his 3-point shooting rate aberrant of 75% (!) D & # 39; efficiency on 1.3 attempts per match.
On the positive side, Jrue Holiday was a key offensive force in the playoffs and started the season in a major shooting crisis with a career minimum of 11.5 points per 36 minutes to 38.1 free kicks. He should regroup and help the team to stay while the big, powerful men slow down.
This is mainly a to sell because pelicans do not have the regular 3-point shooting volume to compete with teams like Warriors and Rockets. (In a way, they do this by placing 27th in 3-point attempts for 100 possessions.) The great men of New Orleans will fall back into a certain humanity in their scores. But they have better offensive talent and, importantly, a better fit than they did in the past. They are in the top 10 in shot quality, per second of spectrum, and should easily rank among the top 10 offensives.
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