By the Numbers: Voter turnout in Maryland has more than doubled compared to the 2014 governors election

More than half of Maryland's eight-day advance voting period, the turnout has more than doubled from the last governorship election – a development that Democrats tout as a good sign for their candidates.

After five days of advance voting, approximately 370,000 Marylanders voted in the general election, an increase of 135% over the same period in 2014.

This could be good news for the Democratic State Party, which hopes that a so-called "blue wave" fueled by Republican President Donald Trump's indignation will drive Democrat Ben Jealous into the Governor's mansion, will help to occupy key seats to hang on to a supermajority in the state Senate.

But does early voting only cannibalize voter turnout on polling day? That's a probability, given the past voting habits, say the election officials in the states.

"Since we introduced early voting, we have seen an increase in the percentage of voters who vote during early voting," said Nikki Baines Charlson, Deputy Administrator of the State Board of Elections. "It's our trend. This keeps voters out of polling day of early voting. "

Here's what we can get from early voting data up to now:

»High participation rate up to now: Elections officials expect 33 percent of voters in Maryland to vote early, which would be a record, Charlson said. This means that nearly two-thirds of voters will vote on polling day. "For Ben Jealous to win, this strong participation must continue until election day," said Mileah Kromer, director of Guth College's Sarah T. Hughes Field Policy Center. "If he manages to form a younger and more diverse electorate, then he has a chance to win."

»No increase the same day: Halfway through the advance poll, 640 Democrats used voter registration the same day to vote. About 200 Republicans did the same. These are relatively small numbers that do not suggest a sharp increase in new voters joining the electorate. "If it was a big blue wave, you would expect these numbers to be more important," said Todd Eberly, Associate Professor of Political Science at St. Mary's & # 39; s College of Maryland.

Older voters dominate The percentage of advance ballots cast to date by Maryland residents aged 18 to 24 is 3%. Older voters have so far dominated the period of early voting, suggesting a similar electorate in previous elections – not a radically changed political environment. "We will always remember the politician who will finally find a way to engage the youth vote," Kromer said. "It's really hard to get young people to vote."

»Light Vote in Town: Mid-way through the early vote, the turnout in Baltimore is 4.8%. The city is a key jurisdiction that Jealous has to transform for him. But the city has few competitions down, which slows participation. On the east coast, where Republican Rep. Andy Harris and Democratic challenger Jesse Colvin argue in Congress, the turnout was robust (15.5% in Talbot County, 11.8% in Queen's County). Anne and 10.8% in Kent County). Jurisdictions with competitive runs for county executives also had above-average participation rates (10.1% in Howard, 7.9% in Anne Arundel and 7.8% in Baltimore County). "Jurisdictions with more competitive races seem to have more advance votes," Eberly said.

" Who knows? The number of Democrats who will vote for Republican Governor Larry Hogan. In the middle of the advance vote, 106,729 more Democrats than Republicans voted in early voting. What is unknown is what candidate they supported. If the Democrats "go home" to their party and support Jealous, as his campaign claims, they will probably win. If more than a third of the votes for Hogan – as suggested by public polls – he will probably win. "It's all about crossbreeding," said Eberly. "That's about how many Democrats cross for Hogan. We will not know until polling day. "

Advance votes take place until Thursday. Election Day is next Tuesday.