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Democrats are targeting eight of the 14 congressional districts in California currently held by Republicans. Voters from seven of 14 districts favored Hillary Clinton in 2016. Opposition to Donald Trump has given rise to Democrats' hope that they will be able to overthrow GOP leaders in the Golden State, even in the conservative fortress of the county. 'Orange, allowing them to win the majority.
But the disgust of liberal governance in California is growing as its failures deepen. This can neutralize the animosity towards Mr. Trump. California Democrats would be easier to defeat Republicans if all politics were national. Instead, they have to deal with the litany of local problems created by their progressive policies.
For starters, the cost of government pensions is increasing dramatically across the state, leading to higher taxes and reduced public services. Seven cities in Orange County are asking voters to approve sales tax hikes in November. Santa Ana, a low-income, predominantly Hispanic city, is looking to increase its sales tax by 1.5 points to 9.25%.
The League of California Cities warned earlier this year that local pension costs are expected to increase by 50% by 2024 and could drive some municipalities out of business. The Los Angeles Unified School District is making emergency budget cuts and layoffs to avoid bankruptcy, but the teachers union threatens to strike if its members do not receive a 6% increase.
Underfunded public pensions divert taxpayers' precious money from transport and public works projects. Last year, the Democratic Legislature faced a 12-cent gas tax increase to pay for the repair of crumbling roads and congested roads. Outside of Hawaii, California's gasoline prices are the highest in the country: 95 cents per gallon above the national average. In June, voters recalled Democratic Senator Josh Newman – whose southern California district was giving Clinton a 13-point lead – because of his vote in favor of increasing the tax on the city. 39; gasoline. The tax hike is so politically toxic that even progressive Democrat Katie Porter, who defies Republican Republican Republican of Orange County, Mimi Walters, has broadcast TV ads stating, "I'm opposed to taxes on higher gasoline ". Josh Harder, opponent of Republican Jeff Denham, Democrat, also extolled his opposition.
Mr. Newman's recall deprived Democrats of the legislative supermajority they need to raise taxes without the support of the GOP. However, in November, Democrats plan to overthrow the two-state Senate and two congressional districts – held by Mr. Denham and David Valadao – in the San Joaquin Valley, which is rich in agriculture. Democrats hold the benefit of registration in these districts but are penalized by their longstanding support for unpopular environmental policies that restrict water to farmers in the region. Concerns about water help keep MM. Denham and Valadao afloat despite voter contempt for President Trump.
Then there is the fiasco of the Department of Motor Vehicles. The agency specializing in multiple sclerosis is struggling to meet the growing demand for Real ID licenses that will be needed to board domestic flights from 2020. Californians wait three to four months for a meeting DMV. Democrats recently instructed the agency to automatically register voters who renew or replace their driver's licenses. The agency recently reported that its poorly trained technicians had committed 23,000 registration errors. All of this raises questions about the jurisdiction of the government. Former Republican Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a candidate for his former independent position, compared the single-payer legislation that his Democratic opponent, Ricardo Lara, had sponsored in the State Senate. entrust the DMV with the responsibility for health care. Mr. Poizner is ahead in most polls.
The mistrust of progressive ideology is most evident in the governor's race including Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and GOP businessman John Cox. During the state's open primary, the Democrat moved away from progressive and public unions, endorsing single-payer health care and a moratorium on charter schools. However, Mr Newsom recently found himself in defense as Mr Cox avoided the state's vagrancy epidemic and soaring housing costs. In a recent election campaign in the suburb of Seal Beach in Orange County, Newsom said, "What happened to our state? we own that. "
At a meeting with the editorial board of the San Francisco Chronicle, Newsom even criticized city officials for tolerating vagrancy and drug use. "You can be too permissive, and I think we have crossed that threshold in this state – not just in this city," he said.
Newsom and his Liberal allies have raised seven times more money than his GOP opponent, but Mr Cox breaks the gap. A KFI-NBC poll this week shows that the Republican loses 7 points, while the Democrats have a 19-point advantage for the listing. At that time in 2014, Governor Jerry Brown was leading the polls by more than 20 points.
So where does that put Republican candidates in the House? Most of the Republicans in positions in favor of Mrs. Clinton successfully won in 2016. Ms. Walters and fellow Republican Orange County, Dana Rohrabacher, both increased their districts by 17 points. Voters in most of these districts remain conservative, but projections of a high participation rate of liberals give Democrats a decisive advantage.
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, whose safe Republican District includes Bakersfield, nevertheless hopes that the Conservatives will be pushed to support Mr. Cox and abolish the gas tax. The test next November is whether the disgust of California voters for President Trump exceeds their disdain for the progressive leadership of their own state.
Ms. Finley is a member of the editorial board of the Journal.
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