Campbell Soup shares climb 9% on Kraft's business buybacks, but analysts believe it will not happen

Shares of Campbell Soup Co. jumped 9% on Monday after Kraft Heinz Co. showed interest in a takeover, but analysts do not think an agreement will take place.

The New York Post reported Friday that Kraft Heinz

KHC, + 0.09%

is "very interested in buying Campbell", and believes that the sales process is imminent.

Kraft Heinz had no comment when MarketWatch reached out.

Campbell Soup

CPB + 9.22%

stocks are now on pace for the largest percentage increase since May 24, 2000, when the stock rose 11.2%.

Campbell Soup announced last month that its executive director, Denise Morrison, would retire and that the company would undertake a strategic review of its entire portfolio.

Lily: Kroger paid too much for the Home Chef meal kit company, say analysts

"Everything is on the table, there are no sacred cows," Interim CEO Keith McLoughlin said on the latest income call, according to a FactSet transcript.

JP Morgan analysts have doubts that a sale will occur.

"We would be surprised if Kraft Heinz wanted Campbell Soup, a company that does not solve Kraft Heinz's growth problems and faces many internal challenges," writes Ken Goldman. "So we do not expect an agreement, but in the end, the money is talking."

Campbell Soup sales have declined over the last three years. Kraft Heinz sales increased from $ 26.49 billion in 2016 to $ 26.23 billion in 2017 and are expected to decline to $ 26.21 billion in 2018, according to the FactSet consensus.

See: Peak of peak? KFC's Fried Chicken with Gherkin joins Sonic's Gherkin Juice in this menu trend

Among the risks exposed by JP Morgan, analysts believe that an acquisition of Campbell Soup does not match Kraft Heinz's strategy, including a "desire to buy healthy growth" and Campbell Soup would add a " major risk of execution "because the company is in transition, including the integration of acquisitions of its own.

However, the deal would likely be "very accretive" for Kraft Heinz's earnings per share, and could be used to lift Kraft Heinz's shares and provide what analysts call "ammunition" for a bigger deal ahead.

"It is embarrassing to refer to Campbell Soup, an $ 11.6 billion company founded four years after the civil war, as a potential springboard for everything," but JP Morgan says it could very well be.

J.P. Morgan estimates that Kraft Heinz is overweight with a target of $ 67.

"[W]We continue to believe that Kraft Heinz will favor large global companies for its acquisitions with brands capable of traveling around the world, with growing categories, and with significant synergies, "wrote Stifel analysts, led by Christopher Growe. "While Campbell Soup undoubtedly brings significant synergies to Kraft Heinz, we do not believe it has the international presence and growth categories necessary to justify an acquisition by the company."

Do not miss: Starbucks says racial prejudice incident has delayed marketing campaign and hurt comparable store sales

Stifel evaluates Kraft Heinz shares at a target price of $ 85.

As for Campbell Soup, Stifel thinks that the company will not continue a sale, but rather will divest itself "on a small scale".

The Campbell Soup stock is down 21.3% from a year ago while Kraft Heinz shares are down nearly 29% over the period. The S & P 500 index

SPX, -1.64%

has increased by 11% in the last 12 months.