Can Trump-type candidates succeed without his blessing? We'll see tonight.



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But unlike many of his mentions (like businessman John Cox in California or Katie Arrington in South Carolina), it's not clear that he's putting his name behind the Trump-like candidate in one of the races.

It makes me think: Are Republican primary voters more interested in Trump's seal of approval? Or do they care more about naming candidates that match Trump's profile?

In other words, are Republican primary voters more attracted to the Trump brand or what it represents? Are they attracted to Trump in particular, or are they looking for non-traditional foreigners who will make things happen?

There have not been many cases where Trump took candidates who did not fit his mold. Perhaps, the highest profile example is when he then approved-Sen. Luther Strange in the Republican primary for the special election of the Senate of Alabama. Primary voters chose Roy Moore's most as Trump as their candidate. (Moore, of course, went down in the general election.)

On Tuesday, Trump's approval may mean more given these races tend to be low profile.

In the 11th Congressional District of New York, voters choose between Rep. Dan Donovan and former Rep. Michael Grimm. Trump approved the current representative (Donovan). He did so even though Donovan voted against the president more often than most Republican members of the House. This includes a vote against the president's tax reform bill.

Grimm, on the other hand, embodies Trump in many ways. This is a New Yorker who speaks fast and who makes insults with the best of them. Grimm could not name a single subject on which he disagreed with Trump when I spoke to him.

The poll here is mixed. If Donovan wins, Trump's approval could have made the difference. If Grimm succeeds, this race becomes a throw in the fall.

In the race of the governor of South Carolina, Trump is behind Governor Henry McMaster in his second round against businessman John Warren. This support is all about Trump's loyalty, as McMaster was one of the first politicians to approve Trump during the 2016 campaign.

Warren is more like Trump. He is a businessman who has never held elective office. This compares to McMaster who has been a candidate for political office for more than 30 years.

The poll here is, again, mixed. McMaster led the only non-partisan public poll. Warren's campaign has published polls showing it forward, but, as always, take that with a big grain of salt. McMaster is probably the favorite since he got a lot more votes than Warren at the primary, but one or the other of the candidates could win.
The most likely contest where a Trump approved candidate who is clearly a non-Republican Trump is likely to win Tuesday is the Senate of Utah primary. There, former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is a heavy favorite on the most pro-Trump Mike Kennedy. The likely victory of Romney probably does not say much for Trump's popularity in Utah. On the contrary, Romney's ability to come out victorious is an indication of Romney's personal brand in the state as well as how anti-Trump Utah is compared to other Republican states.
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