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A new report from the Congressional Budget Office projects a gloomy financial situation for the United States, which sees President Trump
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In 30 years, the burden of US debt should double, eclipsing even the debt carried by the United States during the Second World War.
Payments made by the US government to China and other US debt holders would exceed the Social Security spending forecast in 2048, according to the report.
Most of the increase in debt is related to the aging of the population and the increase in rights expenditures, issues that were disrupting the United States long before Trump's election.
At the same time, the law on tax cuts signed by Trump and passed by the GOP Congress adds to the short-term debt by reducing government revenues. Increased spending by both parties also drives up deficits.
CBO reports that GOP tax law will keep revenues steady until a handful of its provisions expire in 2026 – assuming they are not extended.
The increase in red ink has been a source of concern for congressional Republicans, who sought earlier this year to recover the expenses already incurred through a rarely used resolution program.
This bill, which would have brought in only $ 15 billion in spending, was passed by the House, but it died in the Senate.
The main drivers of long-term debt are the increase in social security spending, health programs such as Medicare and Medicaid and the increase in interest payments.
"Most of the growth in spending on social security and health insurance is a result of the aging of the population," said Keith Hall, director of the CBO.
"Revenue, on the other hand, should be roughly stable over the next few years relative to GDP," he said.
Interest payments will also exceed discretionary spending, the amount that Congress approves each year for defense and non – defensive spending, which is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP by 2048.
CBO has warned that higher debt levels also increase the chances of a fiscal crisis, while reducing the government's ability to respond to unforeseen events.
Trump and his congressional allies have argued that an expanding economy is the key to reducing debt, but the growth needed to do so should be historic. CBO predicted that growth would increase rapidly due to tax and spending policies, but that it would soon fall back to a long-term average of only 1.9%.
To keep the debt burden at its current level, Congress should cut spending or increase revenues by 1.9% of GDP each year. This represents a 10% reduction in spending and an 11% increase in tax revenues, or a combination of both.
By 2019 alone, this would equate to a tax increase that would add $ 1,300 tax to those in the middle of tax distribution, or a reduction in social security that would reduce payments by $ 1,800. for people in the middle of their lives. Distribution.
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