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BEIJING – The Chinese chief, dressed in a dark Mao suit, and the American president, in black tuxedo, stood side by side with arms in the air at Kennedy Center. Deng Xiaoping and Jimmy Carter smiled widely when the band played "Getting To Know You," marking the dawn of a new era of friendship and cooperation between their two nations.
Over the next 40 years, China and the United States established the world's most important economic relations and worked together on issues such as regional security, the fight against terrorism and climate change. Taking the lead of Mr. Deng, China played the role of junior partner, if not always with deference, at least by reducing its ambitions and avoiding conflicts with the United States much stronger.
Now, faster than many countries expected, everything changed.
On Monday, the United States will start taxing $ 200 billion of imports from China, the largest tariff cycle to take effect in a growing trade war. President Trump says the measures are needed to fight against an economic model that forces US firms to surrender their technology in return for market access and grant public subsidies to Chinese competitors.
China's leader, Xi Jinping, who chairs a fast-growing US economy, has openly challenged US leadership abroad, wiping out any hope of a political thaw at home. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats in Washington accused Beijing of imperial ambitions in Asia, aggression in disputed waters, persecution of ethnic minorities, and unscrupulous trade policies aimed at dominating the industries of the future.
In a fundamental change, the Trump administration officially described China asrevisionist "and" strategic competitor "last year. China has been saying similar things in the US for a longer time. But as relations have deteriorated in recent months, many Chinese are now asking if their country is really ready to face the most powerful nation in the world.
China has abruptly canceled not only the trade talks scheduled this week in Washington, but also the military talks that were to begin Tuesday. The latest move was made to protest US sanctions imposed last week on a Chinese military department for the purchase of warplanes and missile equipment from Russia.
A sign of Beijing's growing international influence, the Vatican and the Chinese government said on Saturday that they had reached a landmark agreement on the appointment of Roman Catholic bishops in China, taking a step toward normalizing relations.
While acrimony and rivalry with the United States has intensified, the immediate concern in Beijing is how the Chinese public, accustomed to a booming economy, will handle the trade war and its impact on the main concern of the Communist Party. , inner stability.
The government has sought to project confidence.
"The growth rate may be slowing down by one percent. We can accept it. It's not terrible for us, "said Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a state newspaper known for its nationalist tone. He added that Washington would soon realize that its mobile phone and car manufacturers could not survive without Chinese customers.
"As long as our market develops economically and growing, China will win the trade war," he said.
Charles S.Y. Liu, a private investor who sometimes advises the government, said the Chinese people were ready to endure protracted commercial conflict.
"The Chinese tolerate pain better because we have been poor for so long," he said. "Wealth only happened in the last decade."
But many others are worried, and some have urged Chinese leaders to seize the moment and move the economy to open markets and private companies, rather than allowing an inefficient public sector to dig .
"A closed approach will lead to a drop in the national competitiveness rate," wrote Yan Xuetong, Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, in a recent article. He warned that China might return to the stagnation it suffered in isolation during the Mao era.
"When Trump adopts a protectionist strategy, China should have an open door and force public enterprises to reform," Professor Yan added in an interview. But he said his advice was ignored. "I have no reaction. Nobody listens to me.
Other Chinese argue that the spike in hostility of the United States could have been avoided if President Xi had pursued the policy of "resistance, waiting time" followed by his predecessors and initially fixed by Deng.
Instead, Xi introduced two ambitious programs: the global infrastructure plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative and the effort to dominate the advanced industries known as Made in China 2025, all two criticized by the Trump administration.
"The same things can be done without such arrogance," said Yun Sun, an analyst at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington. "I think the Chinese political community wants to see more action and more assertiveness, but Xi went too far."
The party tried to censor Xi's criticism, but concerns were voiced online about the potential impact of the trade war and the anger over the Belt and Road Initiative. strengthen China's weight abroad.
Echoing a popular opinion on social media, a retired economics professor, Sun Wenguang, argued that it is wrong to spend so much money in other countries. given the problems China faces at home.
"Some are too poor to see a doctor, others are too poor to have a pension after retirement and others too poor to go to school," said Professor Sun in a interview with Voice of America last month. "In such circumstances, if you always choose to throw money in other countries, the internal reactions are almost guaranteed."
While he was talking, the police entered his home and forced him out of the phone.
Professor Sun's criticism reflects a broader concern in China about the government's efforts to convince its allies. The subject is important because the United States has long presented its alliances as the key to their national strength in general and their ability to counter the rise of China in Asia in particular.
China enjoys significant benefits in the region. It is the largest trading partner of almost every country in Asia, while President Trump has reached out to his allies around the world. Even Japan, America's largest ally in Asia, seems to be moving closer to China as Trump threatens the nation with tariffs.
In a rapprochement between the two Asian rivals, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is due to visit Beijing next month, the first visit to China of a Japanese leader since 2011.
"Trump recently said" Japan, you are the next one for the tariffs, "said Mr. Liu, director of private equity. "Thanks, Donald Trump."
But some say that China is groping the opportunity offered by the Trump administration and alienate its neighbors by putting too much weight. There has been a brutal reaction in several countries against the Belt and Road projects that have heavily indebted governments, created few jobs for local residents or damaged the environment. Others have issued an alert regarding Chinese efforts to interfere in the politics of smaller nations.
In a widely circulated essay on Chinese social media, a prominent Communist Party scholar warned against arrogance and national will, noting the plight of emerging powers who succumbed to "recklessness and disgrace." "impetuosity" in the 20th century: Germany, Japan and the Soviets. Union.
"I remember a subject hotly debated online by young Internet users: who is really the enemy of China? Is it America? Japan? Russia? Wrote researcher Luo Jianbo, head of the China Foreign Policy Center at the Central Party School. "If we think about things calmly, maybe they are not. The enemy of China is himself.
In many ways, the Chinese political elite was caught off guard by the speed with which relations with the United States deteriorated, which for a long time were a source of envy and inspiration for many Chinese and a leading destination for education and immigration.
Chinese scholars often observe that new US presidents usually have a hard line against China but are seeking cooperation after figuring out how the two countries need one from the other. President Trump surprised them by challenging this scheme.
"Personally, I am surprised that Trump is taking such drastic measures," said Hu, the newspaper's editor. "Initially, I thought it was a joke, but it turns out to be a real policy, applying tariffs on all these products."
Some Chinese analysts have sought to explain the escalation of the conflict with the United States by focusing on the personal qualities of the two leaders of the country. Trump is seen as an inconstant and transactional businessman who may step down after the mid-term elections in November. They note that he has repeatedly spoken out against China's trade practices, but has made little mention of human rights or military issues.
By contrast, Xi would have invested too much in his signature programs to back down under foreign pressure.
"Personality matters in this relationship," said Wu Xinbo, director of the American Studies Center at Fudan University. "The biggest problem is Trump's credibility."
Although Beijing devotes considerable resources to the study of the United States, there seems to be little understanding that hostility to China in Washington is bipartisan and goes beyond trade, and that many frustrated business leaders against her too.
Teng Jianqun, director of American studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said the government should accept the new reality and tell the Chinese public that the upcoming struggle could be the start of a long struggle for the survival of the country as a great power.
"We should let our people know that this trade war is not a short-term fight," he said, "but a contest that will determine the future of the Chinese nation."
Luz Ding contributed to the research.
