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BEIJING – Over the past two years, China has estimated that 60 million Christians have felt the power of a newly asserted government, eager to end their faith.
While some of the estimated 50 million Protestants in China escaped state intervention, the authorities have demolished hundreds of churches across the country, knocked down church towers and gathered worshipers as part of a vast campaign of control of religion.
The approximately 10 million Catholics in China have faced similar measures. But last weekend, the Chinese government took a different approach by concluding a diplomatic agreement with the Vatican, in which Pope Francis recognizes the legitimacy of seven bishops appointed by Beijing in exchange for their choice over the future Chinese bishops.
Vatican officials said the deal was a historic breakthrough, the first official recognition by the communist government of the pope's authority in Roman Catholic churches in China. But the purpose of Beijing is the same as that of the demolitions of churches: to control the rapid spread of Christianity, the first foreign faith to settle definitively in China since the arrival of Buddhism two millennia ago.
"We are at a turning point," said Ying Fuk-tsang, director of Theology School at Hong Kong Chinese University. "The administration believes that the government has been too lax in the past and now wants to increase the pressure."
The ruling Communist Party views the compromise with the Vatican as a step towards eliminating clandestine churches where Chinese Catholics who have refused to recognize party authority have been venerating for generations. The pope recognizing all the bishops and clergy of the Roman Catholic churches approved and controlled by the party, the underground church could have no reason to exist.
The measures are part of a broader government effort to clamp down on all aspects of society since Xi Jinping took power as leader of the party in 2012. Xi has chaired an extensive repression of corruption, civic organizations and independent journalism, but his approach to religion was more selective.
With many Chinese looking for values and traditions in a period of sometimes confused and chaotic economic change, Xi encouraged the growth of some religions, such as Buddhism and Taoism, while taking steps to respect the party line. Last month, the famous Shaolin Chinese Monastery brandished the national flag for the first time in 1500 years of history.
Xi has taken a much tougher stance on Islam, which the authorities are associating with the challenge of governing ethnic minorities, some of whom have embraced separatists or terrorist groups in China in the west of the country. Mosques have been threatened with destruction, while the customs and clothing of Muslims have been attacked. Men whose beards are considered excessively long or veiled women have been detained in large numbers for re-education.
Christianity poses different challenges. It has spread most rapidly among the white-collar workers of China's major cities and the most prosperous regions, many of whom are venerated in underground churches beyond the control of the government, and the government's tactics reflect the different fate of the two branches.
Catholicism gave China its first permanent Christian presence 400 years ago and benefited powerfully after Western military forces asked China to allow missionaries. The world church has invested in talent and money, opening churches, schools and hospitals across the country.
After the communist takeover in 1949, the hierarchy established by Catholicism in China became a weakness. When diplomatic relations were cut in 1951, the government expelled hundreds of foreign priests and bishops. He took control of the higher structure of the church and began to appoint a clergy loyal to his vision of a Chinese church with no foreign connections.
Since then, Catholicism has stagnated. The number of Catholics has kept pace with population growth, from three million in 1949 to about 10 million today, making it the smallest officially approved religion in China.
Millions of these believers are stubbornly resisting government control. In some parts of China, the Catholic populations of entire counties visit underground churches, and the party-controlled churches are almost empty, their clergy ignored.
All this could change in the context of the rapprochement between the Vatican and Beijing.
Several clandestine bishops in China, including two popular bishops in the strongly Catholic parts of the country, are expected to step down to make way for the bishops appointed by Beijing in the past decade and whom the pope has agreed to recognize. In exchange, the pope plays a role in the appointment of new bishops. There are about 100 bishops and prelates in China and a dozen vacancies.
Exactly how it will work is not clear. Both parties described the agreement signed on Saturday as preliminary and no published details. But an informal veto system seems likely. The Vatican could reject the candidates proposed by the Chinese authorities, but mainly through discreet consultations rather than a formal vote.
In the long run, diplomatic relations could be re-established between Beijing and the Vatican.
Some Chinese Catholics see this as an aid to a church that has been unable to respond to the changes. China, for example, is urbanizing rapidly, but many rural Catholics find little attraction when they emigrate for jobs in the cities. A unified church could answer that.
"I think if it helps to unite the church, then it's a good thing," said You Yongxin, a Catholic writer based in Fuzhou, a city in eastern China. "If the pope is convinced that he can have good bishops appointed through this agreement, then we must trust that he will do it."
Indeed, if carried out as planned, the agreement would give the church a formal role in appointing clergy in party-controlled churches in China for the first time in nearly 70 years. It would be an important concession of the government. On the other hand, Beijing does not give its opinion on the spiritual leader of the Tibetan Buddhists, the Dalai Lama, concerning the appointment of monks or abbots.
However, the agreement was a shock for many Chinese Catholics.
Father Paul Dong Guanhua, a self-ordained bishop of the Zhengding Subterranean Church, in northern China, said it made no sense that Beijing would sign an agreement likely to strengthen the government. ;church.
"Well, if there is an agreement, there is an agreement," he said in a phone interview. "But I find this absurd and I wonder how many other Catholics can agree with this decision."
Other influential clandestine clergy, such as Guo Xijin, one of the bishops who should have withdrawn under the agreement, could not be contacted for comment. In an interview earlier this year, Bishop Guo told the Times that he would resign if asked by the pope.
Rome will also have to conquer skeptical Catholics in Taiwan and Hong Kong, said Lawrence C. Reardon, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, who studies relations between Beijing and the Vatican.
Many, like Hong Kong's retired cardinal Joseph Zen, have he vigorously opposed an agreement with Beijing, arguing that the Communist Party could not trust.
"This is the first step of a dance that they will continue," said Professor Reardon. "It is also the reconciliation of the great Chinese church."
The situation is very different for Protestants in China, whose number went from about one million believers in 1949 to more than 50 million today, partly because the lack of hierarchy of churches allowed rapid growth even in times of persecution.