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Week really interesting regarding the upcoming NFL list. There are a ton of home outsiders, but there are also a lot of little favorites this week. I will focus especially on this last point, focusing on a few teams in which I trust in situations that are not really easy.
I also needed a big week – after breaking away at 2-3 SuperContest, I found myself wading down the middle of the pack. Go below .500 in this thing is not acceptable. After turning to the Raiders Thursday afternoon (THANK YOU NICK MULLENS), I'm a match behind Pete Prisco in the selections of the season's experts. I will not accept losing to Pete. This is not acceptable. It can not happen.
Let's go get winners.
Seahawks (-2) vs. Chargers
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The numbers in this game bother me a bit at the level of the action – most of the tickets are reserved for the Seahawks, while the bulk of the money is for the Chargers, according to Action Network – and I am a little concerned that the shippers are escaping and that they have more time to prepare for this game. The shippers are really good and they feel right now. When this is Philip Rivers and Co. get going. They are third in the DVOA, but may not have a healthy or even active Melvin Gordon. As R. J. White wrote in his column of tips Thursday and on the Pick Six podcast on Friday, Russell Wilson is dominant against his AFC home opponents, posting a remarkable 12-0 performance since his repechage. The Seahawks are not properly evaluated for the moment: their offensive line is starting to play well since Tom Cable's departure, which may not be a coincidence. The defense may not have the Legion of Boom name, but it is the No. 2 team of the defensive DVOA for eight weeks of the season. The Chargers are only 18th of the defensive DVOA and 21st against the race. Seattle should be able to move the ball to the ground and he will put in place Wilson, who has only 17 steals and nine touchdowns in his last three games, for strikes.
What NFL choices can you confidently make in the 9th week? And which Super Bowl candidate is struggling? Check out SportsLine to see which NFL teams have won more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98% of the experts in the last two years.
Broncos (-1) against Texans
Houston is on a series of huge wins right now, having won the last five games. They deserve to have the merit of having annihilated the Dolphins Thursday night, but I'm not sure it's the best five-game series on the planet. Denver is quietly seventh overall in this year's DVOA standings, and this year's performance may not be as bad as we think. They played against the Rams once and the leaders twice – these are three of their four defeats and they have amassed 14 points. Houston is dangerous against running, so Case Keenum will have to appear big, but I think he can do it with Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, who will be heavily invested to produce at a high level. level one day when the Broncos honor Demaryius Thomas, who was traded to the Texans before the deadline. Thomas should not help too much Deshaun Watson, who will see a lot of Von Miller on Sunday.
Rams (+1.5) in Saints
Fading the Saints for the third week in a row, like a fool. Do not worry – considering the lines of the SuperContest, we get almost three points of value AND we get an undefeated team that is somehow an outsider. The Saints could easily win this match. They are really good! Marcus Davenport falling for a month should be a major concern, however, as he has made a huge, game-changing game a week, for much of this season. Cameron Jordan also plays hard, but the Rams are good at keeping Jared Goff standing and giving him time to find wide open receivers. A return to Cooper Kupp is a huge advantage; it could be the secret trigger of this offense in terms of getting it off the ground. No disrespect to Todd Gurley. There will be points scored in this game and there is no huge imbalance between coaches. Sean Payton will try to put a little respect on his name. I just like that Rams get points. An 8-0 team should not be an underdog.
Vikings (-4.5) vs Lions
Detroit is a really interesting team because of the changes it has made this year. In recent weeks, the Lions have become a very heavy team that does not need much Matthew Stafford to throw the ball 200 times per game. It's a good thing, but I'm not sure it's ideal against the Vikings, who are starting to defend themselves in the last few weeks and now rank among the top 10 teams against the race. Everson Griffin should be back at full speed also for this match. My biggest thing is the value: I think the Vikings are a seven-point favorite if Adam Thielen does not fumble at the end of the first half and beats the Saints at home (throwing over there, but it's not is not unreasonable) or even narrowly lost. a. The saints' offensive did not enlighten them, and the Lions are not as good as the saints.
Titans (+6.5) at Cowboys
Dallas dismissed his offensive lineman and traded against Amari Cooper, which probably explains why they are almost a favorite of the touchdown? I do not know, man. This should be a low scoring game between two dubious offenses that like faking games. I do not think the Cowboys are good enough in defense to completely smother Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry / Dion Lewis. If you give me an almost complete touchdown with a team that just made a bye against a team that I find extremely faint and not quite awesome at home, I'll take those points and run.
UNDERDOG BONUS OF THE WEEK OF THE YEAR
Buccaneers (+6) at Panthers
The total turmoil with Tampa Bay, and Carolina rolls on people, just after crushing the Ravens at home. This Carolina team is good and the offensive is clicking for the moment. Tampa Bay is not going to stop them. But everyone is everywhere in Carolina and Ryan Fitzpatrick knows how to squeeze through the back door. Honestly, I would not be shocked if Tampa won this game, I know the Panthers are great, but we have written a lot about them this week and how good the offensive is and they are still able to lose games that they should not lose. It looks like one of them. All that is here underlines Panthers. It's a game of sensations.
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