Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens: Prediction, overview, statistics to know about the AFC North confrontation

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One of these two teams will go to 2-0 this week, while the other will play catch – up. How will everything happen on "Thursday Night Football" (8:20 pm, NFL Network) and what should the conscientious observer observe? Keep reading to find out.

When crows have the ball

Joe Flacco is back! The Ravens starter has just played his best regular season game since 2014. Flacco has completed 25 of 34 passes for 236 yards and three touchdowns and has not been intercepted. His score of 121.7 was the highest score he has recorded in a regular season game since October 2014. This was the first time he had made three touchdown passes without being removed since the match. career. Of the 74 players in NFL history with at least eight such games, Flacco is one of 24 players whose team has won every time. (The Patriots are at 53-2 when Tom Brady throws at least three unselected touchdowns – it sounds a lot more impressive than the Ravens at 8-0 when Flacco does it.)

That being said, I'm not sure of the conclusions we can or should draw from a game that the Ravens played against a team that seems to be barely an NFL unit. It is also important to note that Flacco did not really challenge the Buffalo Corner tandem. More than half of Flacco's shots in the first week were made at close ends or half-downs.

As such, he did not push the ball very low. The average depth of his throws was only 7.1 yards, according to Pro Football Focus, 25th among the 35 quarters who played at least a quarter of the slaps of their team during the first week.

The Bengals probably have a group of half-backs even stronger than the Bills. William Jackson III has experienced a spectacular rookie season during which he granted a catch rate of 34.9%, by Pro Football Focus, and a passer rating of 36.1. These two personalities rank among the best in the NFL. Dr. Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard were not as good as Jackson last season, but they both gave lower-than-average scores to their opponents when they were targeted in the cover, even though they were more often than Jackson.

It's hard to know which corner will match which Ravens receiver because Baltimore has often moved them in Week 1, but we know the receiver on the right side of the offensive will see Jackson, the receiver on the left will see Kirkpatrick, and the niche is going to see Dennard.

It is possible that Flacco may once again severely target his goals and his tight backs, but the Cincinnati defense should not drop as many yards after the capture as Buffalo's last week.

Of course, Baltimore would probably prefer that his offense be based on his hasty attack. Alex Collins has collected 15 or more races in nine of last year's 11 games, including the Bengals final, where he picked up the rock 20 times for 78 yards. Collins did not hit the ball much last week, but it was a strange match where Baltimore had things in hand early and moved away from his usual rotation. The Ravens will likely attempt to do this early and often to control the line of scrimmage against a strong defensive front, and to place Flacco in more beneficial third-order situations where his preference for targeting tight ends and rollovers during checks . will always allow them to take a conversion.

When the Bengals have the ball

The most notable aspect of the Bengals Week 1 offensive is the way in which their fieldwork was divided. For years, the Bengals have used a backfield committee. Discover the distribution of the keys by game during the last seasons.

In the first week, the Bengals operated with a real lead for the first time since the 2012 season, when BenJarvis Green-Ellis averaged 18.8 hits per game and the second closest (Cedric Peerman) by match Joe Mixon has received 17 races in week 1, against only one for Giovani Bernard. Mixon has also been targeted seven times in the passing game against Bernard. In total, Mixon had 22 touchdowns for 149 yards and one score, while Bernard touched the ball twice and had nine yards. Mixon also surpassed Bernard 44 to 12, giving him an 80-20 split of the snap-load.

Bernard has been a "second half time share" throughout his career, a role that suits him, given his stature and strength in the passing game. but Mixon brings the power skills of a Green-Ellis or Jeremy Hill while having the ability to act as a blocker or receiver out of the backfield. It's possible that they want to lighten their workload during the season, but it seems to have the skills to handle work alone. It is worth considering in the context of this confrontation. Baltimore has often received run / pass clues against the Bengals because of those lined up behind or close to quarterback Andy Dalton, but that may not be the case with Mixon anymore.

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Dalton would benefit from greater unpredictability. He has 7-6 in 13 career regular season games against the Ravens, but his performance against them has been below average. Dalton made at least three starts in the regular season against 12 different opponents. His 57.0 completion percentage against the Ravens ranks seventh in this group, as is his 6.94 yards per attempt. Its landing rate of 3.14% is however in the 10th rank, as its intercept rate of 3.56%. And his ranking of 74.1 passers-up ranks 11th. The Ravens are also one of only two of those 12 teams against whom Dalton has a negative landing ratio.

It is likely that Dalton will also benefit from the presence of one of his best weapons, which is rarely on the ground. Tyler Eifert is finally healthy, and there has been a slight rise in some areas of Dalton's performance when Eifert was on the field.

Specifically, Eifert's presence helped Dalton push the ball a little further down the field. This is not a surprise. Eifert is a big threat (6-6, 255 pounds) in the middle of the pack and he excels at beating linebackers on track with his athleticism and beating them to the point of catching them. Interestingly, this specific feature is a problem that the Ravens met last season.

According to Football Outsiders, the Baltimore second-pass defense (by DVOA) was below average at just three points: cover the tight ends (29th), coverage go midfield (16th) and cover the passes deep (24th). If Eifert manages to play more than 40% of shots this week, it could potentially do damage.

Of course, Dalton is not the only Bengal to have benefited from Eifert's presence on the ground. It can be argued that Eifert was even more beneficial to A.J. Vert's general public production.

Green should see media coverage of the Ravens corner, Brandon Carr, which is bigger and longer than Marlon Humphrey. Last year, when the Ravens closely followed the biggest receivers, Carr often traveled with these players. Carr is still not this great coverage, but became much more a playmaker in Baltimore than it was during his four years with the Dallas Cowboys. He had four interceptions and 12 defensive passes last season and already had one choice and three deflections last week. Green is obviously a different animal to treat, say Kelvin Benjamin. Carr will have some work to do this week.

But Carr's rise to power is also emblematic of what the Ravens defense was about last season. Baltimore imposed a turnover of 17.4% in 2017, the highest rate in the league. The ability to force turnovers on so many possessions has not been very consistent from year to year, so I do not recommend waiting for the Ravens to rank first just because they did it last year.

What we should expect is that they put pressure on Dalton with their defensive front because they have the players to do. And if they are able to create that pressure, it could force Dalton to make the kind of mistakes we've had the habit of doing over the years.

Choice: Ravens 20, Bengals 16