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Published on November 17, 2018 |
by Zachary Shahan
November 17, 2018 by Zachary Shahan
The Tesla Model 3 was the 15th best selling light vehicle in California in the first half of 2018. I expect it will be No. 2 for the entire year.
Our friend Troy Teslike recently noted you can get detailed registration numbers from California via California Auto Outlook. The problem is that it takes a long time for these reports to be published after the end of the quarter.
The last report is on the second quarter of 2018. We have only a month and a half to wait until the end of 2018 and the delivery figures of Tesla for the fourth quarter are announced, but it will take several months to obtain California car registration data for the year.
I'm impatient, so I'm jumping here now and I'm going to make a prediction. Based on the first half of 2018 and forecast sales of Tesla and other auto sales for the second half of 2018, I expect Tesla's Model 3 to become California's second best-selling Light Vehicle in 2018.
That's right – not the second best selling car, but the 2nd best selling light vehicle. That said, pickup trucks do not seem to be doing as well in California as they do nationally. The best-selling light vehicle in California in the first half of 2018 was the Honda Civic (a car). With nearly 44,000 registrations, there were more than 12,000 registrations more than the No. 2 Toyota Camry and nearly 20,000 more than the No. 3 Ford F Series.
Model 3 registered 12,674 registrations in the first half of 2018, which has already placed the car in a fairly solid position in that state. In fact, it ranks at the top of the "near-luxury" category, with 21% of sales in this segment. Overall, Model 3 was the 15th best-selling light vehicle in the state in the first half of the year.
However, as we all know, the production of Tesla Model 3 was much stronger in the second half of 2018 than in the first half. Presumably, a significant portion of sales remain sales in California (where, as I understand it, you see several models 3 on your doorstep each time you go out).
If you estimate 60,000 model 3 shipments to California during the second half of the year, the vehicle will register approximately 73,000 registrations for the entire year. The only model that would surpass that of the Honda Civic (43,857 × 2 = 87,714) if we doubled the number of registrations from January to June 2018 The Toyota Camry No. 2 would total about $ 63,000. The Honda Accord # 3 would reach about $ 56,000.
California Model 3 sales forecasts are highly variable, but my predictions are pretty good between the current # 1 Civic and the # 2 Camry. So I think the car will end up shouting a silver medal in 2018.
A final interesting note to make is that two of the five most traded cars for the Model 3 were the Civic and the Accord. Presumably, the Model 3 has not only pulled Californian sales of luxury brands, but also the most reputable Honda and Toyota models. With this in mind, it is hard not to think that model 3 is slowing down Honda and Toyota sales, contributing to the rise of number 3. We will see how this assumption continues over time.
What is your vision of all this? Where are the deliveries of Tesla Model 3 California? What about other top selling vehicles? What position will Model 3 occupy on or off the podium?
If you are looking to buy a Tesla, enjoy my job and need a referral code, you're in the right place: http://ts.la/tomasz7234
About the author
Zachary Shahan Zach tries to help the society to help herself (and other species). He spends most of his time here CleanTechnica as director and editor. He is also the president of Important media and the director / founder of Obsession EV and Solar love. Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has lectured on clean technologies at conferences in India, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States and Canada.
Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG and ABB. After years devoted to sun protection and electric vehicles, he simply has confidence in these companies and has the impression that they are good clean tech companies in which to invest. But it does not offer any professional investment advice and should not be held responsible for your loss of money, so do not rush.
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