Climate change could triple the number of violent storms in Europe and North America

Powerful storms that cause extreme weather conditions, such as floods in Europe and North America, which can cause social and economic devastation, could triple by the end of the 21st century due to climate change. .

The new pioneering research, led by Dr. Matt Hawcroft of Exeter University, showed new and detailed information on projections of extratropical cyclone frequency.

Research shows that, unless there is a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, their frequency will dramatically increase over large areas of the northern hemisphere.

Crucially, the impact on local communities could be severe, with more extreme and extreme storms leading to greater floods – similar to those seen in Somerset in 2013/14, Cumbria in 2015 and Gloucestershire in 2007.

The research is published in the journal Letters of research on the environment Tuesday, November 27, 2018.

Dr. Hawcroft, a researcher in the Exeter Department of Mathematics, said, "Extreme extremes of precipitation are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in a warmer climate." In this work, we have attributed These changes to events that result in large-scale precipitation and flooding This additional information on the dynamic nature of the changes is important as they provide clear information on the nature and impact of precipitation changes that may be used, for example in policy development and adaptation planning. "

Extratropical cyclones, which are driven by the jet stream, play a key role in daily weather variability across large areas of North America and Europe. They are characterized by areas of low atmospheric pressure at the center of the storm, cyclonic air sucked (counterclockwise) around the low pressure.

This leads to warm southern air and cold north air. At the junction of cold air and warm air, fronts form that can cause heavy rains. The most extreme storms are responsible for large-scale floods in North America and Europe.

A key piece of information for policymakers and governments seeking to mitigate these extreme weather conditions is the ability to predict where and how often these storms might occur in the future. However, current projections of climate models are subject to great uncertainty.

In this new study, researchers analyzed the behavior of current and future storms using state-of-the-art storm modeling and monitoring techniques. By approaching the analysis in a "storm" setting, the team was able to evaluate the changes in frequency and intensity of these extratropical cyclones with more consistency than suggested by previous studies.

It is important to note that the research team was able to demonstrate that the number of the most highly precipitating extratropical cyclones in Europe and North America would increase threefold by the end of the century.

Dr. Hawcroft added, "Due to the complexity of the circulation's response to global warming, regional trends in climate change are highly uncertain, and given this uncertainty, it is important to have clear information where they are available, despite these complexities, we are still able to provide broad and consistent projections of change in these very important events. "

Explore further:
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More information:
Extremely increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones is published in Letters of research on the environment.