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According to a new study by Zillow and Climate Central, a non-profit organization that conducts research on climate change, the construction of seas in flood-prone areas continues, causing rising sea levels, mainly due to climate change . According to the study, as many as 386,000 households in the US coastal region, worth $ 209.6 billion, are at risk of being flooded by 2050, according to the study – which corresponds to a period of 30 years of mortgages signed in 2020.
"This research suggests that the impact of climate change on the lives and portfolio of homeowners is closer than you think," said Skylar Olsen, director of economic research and outreach for Zillow. "For homebuyers over the next few years, the impact of climate change will be felt for the duration of their 30-year mortgage."
The combined analysis revealed that San Mateo (California) and Galveston (Texas) had the highest shares of their total number of dwellings threatened by chronic floods by 2050 (34.2%). and 13.1%, respectively), if emissions continue to be current. In 2100, these shares reach 41.6% and 78.4% and far exceed the proportion of homes threatened by chronic floods by Miami Beach (85.2%) and Miramar, Florida, by 81.5%. .
With regard to the total number of households affected in 2050, San Mateo also conducted the analysis with 8,951 people, followed by New York with 6,259. In 2100, New York City would see 95,210 affected households, or 6, 4% of the total housing stock.
If you live near the coast, you can use the Climate Central and Zillow map tool below to determine the potential impact of flooding on your property or community within these timeframes:
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The study used data from several scientific reports on the melting of Antarctic ice published over the last two years, as well as those of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, composed of renowned scientists and information from 195 countries. She also relied on computer simulations of the rising seal level thousands of times for each emissions scenario. The study notes that many things could change at this time, especially the new infrastructure or the degradation of the current infrastructure, which could make the scenarios better or worse for homeowners.
The rise in sea level means that the intermittent floods that coastal communities are now experiencing will creep further inland, according to the study. The study adds that floods can damage and devalue homes, degrade infrastructure, dry beaches and disrupt transportation systems.
"Without intervention, hundreds of thousands of coastal homes will be flooded regularly and the damage will cost billions," said Olsen.
The research team responsible for the study suggests that a moderate reduction in emissions could reduce the number of homes at risk by about 10% by 2050.
The estimates for 2100 are much thinner. The study suggests that 1.3 million existing homes would be at risk, even though emissions are moderately reduced. If emissions continue unchecked, the study suggests that about 2.5 million homes – of an estimated value of $ 1.3 trillion – would be in jeopardy.
Different communities will feel the impact in different ways. Cities like Los Angeles, located high enough above sea level, will only feel the impact on their beaches, according to the study.
It is estimated that 10% of homes in Galveston, Texas, and 7% of Ocean City, Maryland, are in danger of being flooded annually by 2050. Nearly half of the homes in these two cities may be at risk. by 2100 – even with a moderate risk. emission reduction. By 2100, about 75% of the cities of Hoboken (New Jersey) and Miami Beach (Florida) could face annual floods.
Houses are built faster in flood-prone areas than in safer areas. (Credit: Zillow and Climate Central)
Despite the outlook, homes are still undergoing rapid construction in areas prone to flooding. In more than 50% of the country's coastal cities, houses are built faster in flood-prone areas than in safer areas.
"The combination of Zillow's data and Climate Central's coastal analysis has allowed us to have our most detailed picture to date of US homes threatened by rising seas," said Benjamin Strauss, CEO and Scientist. chief of Climate Central. "And we found that many communities are growing faster in areas exposed to future chronic floods than in higher areas. It is difficult to plan for the high seas if you are busy digging deeper holes. "
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