CNN poll: Biden tops Trump-dominated Democrat squad

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The public is divided as to whether they think the president will win a second term – 46% say he will, and 47% say he will not. But it's been a big improvement for him since March, when 54% of adults thought he would lose his bid for a second term. The share that sees a second Trump victory in perspective has risen over party lines. The increase is a little sharper among men (up to 8 points), independents (from 39% in March to 47% currently) and enthusiasts from the mid-term vote (by 37% in March to 46% now).

Proponents of the president are just as likely to want it to be renamed today as in March: 74 percent of Republicans and Republican independents say that he should be the party's candidate in 2020, and 21% would prefer to see someone else at the top. of the ticket.

In the race for the Democratic nomination to face Trump, former Vice President Biden is leading a huge potential. The poll asked Democratic Democrats and Independents to choose their preferred candidate for the presidency from 16 possible candidates. Biden tops the list with 33% of the vote, followed by Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, finalist of 2016, with 13%. Senator Kamala Harris of California follows at 9%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 8%. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and 2004 Democrat John Kerry have been rewarded 5% support.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who recently became a registered Democrat and spoke Saturday night in New Hampshire, stands at 4% of the vote. The Texas representative, Beto O 'Rourke, who is currently running against Senator Ted Cruz, has also reached 4%. Fewer than 1 percent said they supported Maryland's representative, John Delaney, the only candidate reported in the field, and only 1 percent chose lawyer Michael Avenatti, who went to the early states of primary school. and caucus.

Sanders continues to spark some of the divisions he experienced in 2016, garnering less support from declared Democrats and older voters. Of those who consider themselves Democrats, 34% are Biden, 11% Harris, 9% Sanders and 8% Warren. Among independents who claim to support the Democratic Party, Sanders ranks second with 21% (Biden 31%, Warren 8% and Harris 7%).

Harris seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Sanders' challenges among Democratic supporters. Among the self-identified Democrats who consider themselves Liberals, Harris's support reaches 19%, behind Biden still at 27% but well ahead of Sanders, who earns only 7% of this group.

When you add democratic-minded independents to this, the Liberals share more equitably, 28% behind Biden, 15% Harris, 13% Sanders and 11% Warren. Among Democrats and Democrats who consider themselves more moderate or conservative, Biden is well above the others: 38% of Biden, 14% of Sanders and all the rest at a single digit.

Between Sanders and Biden, there is still an age gap between parties, with younger voters more likely to support Sanders than older voters (21% among under-45s versus 8% among Democrats plus elderly) and many more among the over 45s. (39% in the oldest group support Biden against 26% among young Democrats). No other candidate receives significantly different support depending on the age groups.

There is little difference in Biden's support between men (35%) and women (32%), suggesting that consideration of his role at confirmation hearings of the Supreme Court of Clarence Thomas in 1991 during the confirmation proceedings of Brett Kavanaugh did not cause significant harm to the former chairman of the Judiciary Committee of the Senate.

The CNN survey was conducted by SSRS from October 4 to 7 in a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cell phones by an online interviewer. The results for the full sample have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points; it is bigger for the subgroups.