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This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a mid-term cycle since 2006, when the party had so far held a huge 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. It was also at that time that Democrats took control of the House of Republicans, forcing Nancy Pelosi to speak up in 2011.
This year, the Democrats' enthusiasm for their congressional vote has increased and 62% now say they are extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, up seven points since September among Democrats and independent Democrats. Republicans and independents with republican tendencies remained relatively stable, going from 50% in September to 52% in the last survey.
This year's enthusiasm for democracy is more intense than in previous mid-term cycles, which generally involve fewer voters than the presidential years. The 40% who say they are "extremely enthusiastic" are the largest part of a mid-term election cycle since CNN first asked the question in 2009.
In fact, the enthusiasm of Democrats today is more like the 2008 presidential election. Just before the election of President Barack Obama, 45% of Democrats and Democrats said that They were extremely excited to vote in November. In 2008, Democrats won eight Senate seats and 21 in the House, as well as a victory in the presidency.
Strong support for Democrats in women
Women's support for Democratic candidates remains extremely strong. 63% of women say that they will vote for the Democrat and only a third will vote for the Republican. The men are more divided, but bend in the opposite direction, with half support for the Republican and 45% for a Democrat.
If women voted as suggested by the likely number of voters, this would be the strongest performance of House Democrats in the House's history of polling polls out of polling stations (since 1976) . The previous record of women voting Democrats dates back to 1982, when Democrats received the vote of 58% of voters.
Women are not significantly more enthusiastic to vote than men: 57% are extremely or very enthusiastic compared to 53% of men. However, this is a change from what we usually observe in a mid-term election year. In 2010, 46% of female voters were enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, compared to 54% of men. In 2014, a year of very low participation, 32% of men were enthusiastic, compared to 28% of women.
Republicans win the game of expectations
Despite all the good signs of this poll for Democrats, they have not made progress in the game of expectations. Half of Americans (50%) say that they expect Republicans to retain control of Congress after the elections, while only one third think Democrats will go to the polls. take away (34%), against 40% who thought to have Congress in August survey.
Overall, the country would be better off if the Democrats took control of Congress (38%) instead of saying it would be worse (32%). But this gap has narrowed since September, when 40% thought the country would be better under democratic control and 28% said it would be worse. About a quarter of the two polls said it made no difference.
Whatever the case may be, Americans are not very impressed with the Congress as it is: just 17% say they approve of how Congress manages its work, the worst rating (d & # 39; one point) of Donald Trump's presidency.
When asked which party would better deal with important issues, the Democrats took advantage of two of the three critical issues in their campaign. Americans largely trust Democrats versus Republicans in terms of health care (54% to 36%) and immigration (49% to 42%). Republicans have the advantage over the economy – 48% prefer them over this issue versus 42% who prefer Democrats.
Favorability ratings for Democratic and Republican parties have been about the same since May. In the new survey, 46% have a positive view of the Democratic Party and 45% a negative view. Republicans are a little less well off: 40% of them have a favorable opinion and 52% think unfavorably.
The CNN survey was conducted by SSRS from October 4 to 7 in a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cell phones by an online interviewer. The results for the full sample have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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