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USA TODAY Sports’ Paul Myerberg on the biggest risers, fallers and surprises from Week 9 in the top 25 of the Amway Coaches Poll.
USA TODAY Sports
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book runs the ball against Navy.(Photo: Jake Roth, USA TODAY Sports)
Projecting the College Football Playoff field is only slightly easier today than it was in August. At least the options have been trimmed, from the entire breadth of the Football Bowl Subdivision — that’s the idea, in theory — to a select handful of college football’s best.
It’s still too early to say that any single team has a national semifinal in its grasp, and yes, that includes Alabama. November will be telling: Starting with the Crimson Tide’s matchup with LSU on Saturday, the season’s final month will eventually decide which four teams will reach the national semifinals.
But what will happen in November is anyone’s guess. The scenarios that may unfold range from the likely through the possible through the unpredictable.
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Recent history tells us to prepare for the unexpected. With the initial College Football Playoff rankings set for release on Tuesday night, here’s how the race may play out:
Likely
Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame win out, locking in the top three and leaving the fourth and final spot open to a Power Five conference champion.
Scenario No. 1: Alabama. Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan
Scenario No. 2: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State
Scenario No. 3: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Oklahoma
Scenario No. 4: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Washington State
The first two scenarios hinge on the regular-season finale between the two Big Ten rivals and the ensuing conference title game, which would pit one of the Wolverines or Buckeyes against the winner of the West Division. As of now, that looks like Northwestern.
Oklahoma would need some help, specifically from a Big Ten team currently holding two or more losses. But one misstep from Ohio State or Michigan in November – an OSU loss to Michigan State or a Michigan loss to Penn State, for example – would create a scenario where the Big Ten puts forth a two-loss champion, and a one-loss OU team would then hold the edge.
Washington State would need to run the table and have the winners of the Big Ten and Big 12 enter the postseason with at least two losses. Not as likely as the first three scenarios, maybe, but still likely enough to be a realistic scenario to unfold in November. Conference championships matter to the selection committee, even one that would come from the weakest of the Power Five leagues.
Possible
The first upset to the system would be if Notre Dame loses to one of Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse or Southern California, which would widen the field to include an additional Power Five conference champion. Even then, Notre Dame wouldn’t be officially eliminated — all the Irish would need is a loss by Washington State or one of Ohio State and Michigan on the way to a conference title.
Scenario No. 1: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Oklahoma
Scenario No. 2: Alabama. Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma
Scenario No. 3: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Washington State
Scenario No. 4: Alabama. Clemson, Oklahoma and Washington State
Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray runs the ball for a gain against Army. (Photo: Mark D. Smith, USA TODAY Sports)
Alabama could lose once and still reach the semifinals, as illustrated a season ago. That would create another scenario seen this past January: two SEC teams in the field. The SEC teams in question would be dictated by when the Tide lose, whether it’s in November to LSU or in early December to the winner of the SEC East Division.
Scenario No. 1: Clemson, Notre Dame, LSU and Alabama
Scenario No. 2: Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia and Alabama
Scenario No. 3: Clemson, Michigan, Kentucky and Alabama
Scenario No. 4: Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma and Alabama
Alabama might even lose once and still nab the third seed, which would renew the possibility that the Tide and Clemson could meet in the championship game. What a one-loss Alabama does, however, is eliminate the chances for Washington State, which would then have another roadblock in its path to reach the field with one loss.
Unpredictable
Let’s say that Alabama loses twice — once to LSU and then in the SEC title game. And let’s say that Kentucky beats Georgia this Saturday and then goes ahead and wins the SEC. Yeah, let’s think about the unthinkable. Here’s how that might look.
Scenario No. 1: Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan and Kentucky
Now, let’s play out that same scenario with the addition that Notre Dame loses twice.
Scenario No. 1: Clemson, Michigan, Kentucky and Oklahoma
Scenario No. 2: Clemson, Michigan, Kentucky and Washington State
Alabama is out of the picture. Kentucky has won the SEC. Notre Dame has lost twice. Oklahoma wins out but loses to Texas in the Big 12 championship game. Ohio State beats Michigan but loses the Big Ten title to Northwestern. Central Florida continues to win and caps the regular season at 13-0 and atop the American Athletic Conference.
Scenario No. 1: Clemson, Kentucky, Washington State and UCF
Want some more crazy? UCF runs the table. Clemson loses to Boston College on Nov. 10 and to Virginia in the ACC championship game. West Virginia loses to Texas, Texas loses to Iowa State, West Virginia beats Oklahoma and Iowa State beats Oklahoma to win the Big 12. Michigan loses to Penn State and beats Ohio State but falls to Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. Washington State drops the Apple Cup to Washington, which beats Utah to claim the Pac-12. Georgia wins the SEC East at 11-1 but falls to unbeaten Alabama in the SEC championship game.
Scenario No. 1: Alabama, Georgia, UCF and Northwestern
Scenario No. 2: Alabama, UCF, Georgia and Iowa State
Now, the same outcomes as above except that 12-0 Alabama loses to 11-1 Kentucky in early December.
Scenario No. 1: Kentucky, Alabama, UCF and Northwestern
Scenario No. 2: Kentucky, Alabama, UCF and Iowa State
UCF loses once. Notre Dame falls twice. Clemson loses two games and Virginia takes the ACC. The same scenario as above with the Big 12 leaves Iowa State as the conference champion. Northwestern knocks off one of Michigan or Ohio State in the Big 10 championship game. Utah wins the Pac-12 with three losses. Meanwhile, this occurs in the SEC: Kentucky beats Georgia but loses to Tennessee; Alabama beats LSU by a point on Saturday; LSU wins out; Kentucky beats Alabama to win the SEC. Here’s how you get three SEC teams into the field.
Scenario No. 1: Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Northwestern
Scenario No. 2: Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Clemson
Scenario No. 3: Kentucky, Alabama, Iowa State, LSU
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