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Darrell Henderson (8)Mark Zaleski / Associated Press
There are almost always a couple of double-digit outsiders who win outright. Just last week we saw Tennessee (+15) upset Auburn, Liberty (+11) topple Troy and Michigan State (+13.5) to shock Penn State.
Generally speaking, a 10 point dog that wins outright wins 3-1 on the money line and a 17.5 point dog will pay about 6-1, so there is a lot of value in this zone.
(If you prefer to throw your money on roulette-type odds, a Tennessee total win over Alabama is on the eve. +3 250 in some books, and the Connecticut money payment to South Florida is +8,000. We are not, however, in the race for miracles.)
Here are three important outsiders who could silence the situation and put a big piece of money in your pocket.
Memphis (+310) in Missouri
Missouri has dropped at least 37 points in four consecutive games, and Memphis has one of the most significant offenses of the season. The CAA Tigers should score enough to at least keep some interesting things on the road against the SEC Tigers.
Memphis' win will depend on his ability to contain quarterback Drew Lock. He has had a lot of problems in the last three games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama (48.2%, 1 TD, 5 INT), but these defenses are much better than those of Memphis.
Lock should return to its early-season, no-conference form, but Memphis backing Darrell Henderson and Co. could still take the lead in a match where the two teams could outshine 40 points.
State of Texas (+330) at Louisiana-Monroe
Texas State has no win against its FBS opponents, including a loss to Rutgers. There are not many scenarios in which it's a good idea to bet on the Bobcats to win a road match.
But it's a bet against Louisiana-Monroe rather than a vote of confidence in the state of Texas. The Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country, giving over 200 yards on the ground and more than 300 passing yards. Three of their defeats earned at least 32 points, including one against a state team from Georgia who–like the state of Texas–is also winless against the FBS competition.
Doing better than 3-1 on a defeat of the Warhawks seems like a good investment.
North Carolina (+650) at Clemson
Clemson should win this game and convincingly.
Travis Etienne has accumulated more rushing yards (761) in six games than NC State in team (724) in five games. Trevor Lawrence gives the Tigers a passing attack at least as good as the Wolfpack. Consider Clemson's superior defense and the fact that it is played in Death Valley, and so it's no surprise that the Tigers are favored by a win over two touchdowns.
But we could say similar things before the last two meetings of this series, each of them being linked to the thread and decided by a touchdown. Even if the Wolfpack have not yet faced this talented opponent, they will find a way to get up for this undefeated showdown. The number +650 is too juicy to be missed.
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