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Teachers pack the Capitol State in Oklahoma City in April. Republican candidates for governorship could struggle against the political fallout of the teachers' outburst. (Nick Oxford / Reuters)
Oklahoma and South Carolina do not top the list for the most competitive governor races in 2018, but the Democrats hope to reach the governor's two houses this year anyway – especially if Republicans nominate unpopular and incumbent candidates on Tuesday.
The story here is not necessarily about President Trump.
Republicans may be victims of their own success in the governor's homes. They hold an almost record number: 33 out of 50. In states like Oklahoma and South Carolina, the very fact that they are in power could hurt them.
Voters in both states with elections on Tuesday are incredibly dissatisfied with their current governors. Part of this dissatisfaction is dictated by personality, as in South Carolina, where Governor Henry McMaster (R) has trouble clearing the label that his opponents slapped him as a corrupt insider. His clash against businessman John Warren on Tuesday should be tight even after Trump surrendered Monday night to campaign for McMaster.
McMaster, having witnessed a few weeks ago how much a tweet of Trump can reverberate in his state, personally put pressure for Trump to come to campaign for him. But people watching this race say some Conservative voters have an aversion to McMaster that could make him a weakened general election candidate.
In Oklahoma, Republican issues are more focused on politics. Mary Fallin (R), governor of limited duration, and the Republican-controlled legislature are calling themselves conservatives for approving tens of millions of tax dollars this spring to increase teachers' salaries and funding for schools.
But an energized left and middle are frustrated that Republicans have not sufficiently increased teachers' salaries. Even in a strongly Republican state, this block could be enough to make the electoral difference. Oklahoma ranks among the states with the lowest salary for teachers, and many of its teachers went on a nine-day strike in April.
The mixed political response to this strike has put Republican candidates trying to replace Fallin in an uncomfortable place: Do they adhere to traditional Republican orthodoxy and disapprove of tax increases? Or do they support the tax hikes that their own party has approved?
Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb has decided to oppose tax increases, even if it is part of the administration that approved them. He left Fallin 's law firm last year to try to part with his boss, as Fallin' s popularity made a splash in the nose as she considered further increases in her business. taxes to fill a budget deficit of $ 900 million.
Lamb is the best known name in the Republican primary of 10 people. But because of his ties to the governor, he may be the weakest in a general election. Republicans in Washington say that they will likely have to spend money in general elections to boost Lamb on a Democrat. This is not nothing, since the state has voted for Trump for more than 35 points and that Trump is still appreciated by around 55% of the state.
The Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma, Todd Lamb (R). (Sue Ogrocki / AP)
Republican polls suggest that a more promising general election candidate for them is the former mayor of Oklahoma City, Mick Cornett. Democrats acknowledge that it could be difficult to address because it is more difficult to pin down the unpopularity of Fallin.
Kevin Stitt, a mortgage company owner who was the least known in the Republican field when he participated in the race, spent more than $ 1 million of his own money to change that.
If no candidate gets a majority of votes on Tuesday, the first two will be eliminated at the end of August.
That's a likely scenario, and that means the Democrats could have another advantage in the Oklahoma governor's race: a run-in campaign. Former Attorney General of Oklahoma, Drew Edmondson, is expected to win the first governorship of the Democrats on Tuesday.
It will try to reactivate what the Democrats in Washington describe as a "siren call" of the enthusiasm of Liberal voters in the Trump era, which manifested in Oklahoma during teachers' walkouts and several notable legislative victories of the state for Democrats.
In November, the Democrats won a legislative seat in a district that voted for Trump by nearly 40 points. It is only one of the four legislative seats of the state in Oklahoma that they have tilted to the present, which makes it the only one in the world. State one of the first Democrats to emphasize the enthusiasm of their party.
[[[[Democrats win impressive special elections at the state legislative level.]
Democrats also feel very good about their candidates for the governor in other red states. Stacey Abrams, nominated in the Georgia Governor's Run, is one of their star recruits in 2018, though some wonder if she is too far to win the state.
In South Carolina, the Democrats have named a veteran and Purple Heart recipient, state representative James Smith, who has been able to campaign while McMaster has focused in recent weeks on his second round.
While Republicans recognize that all these races in traditionally red states could potentially be competitive, they think (and hope) that the Democrats have made missteps in which they have chosen. Specifically, by naming candidates who are not socially or fiscally conservative like the rest of the states.
"Democrats can name the best person they have, but if they are a pro-choice and pro-tax-raising candidate in a dark red state, they have a tough battle," said Jon Thompson , spokesman for the Association of Republican Governors.
Yet Democrats have reason to be optimistic – even at the limit too optimistic – in these states thanks to an unpopular Republican leadership and a wave of democratic enthusiasm from voters who are already overthrowing the legislature's seats. 39, State in the country of Trump.
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