Could China's space exploration project challenge it?

Main image: The Chang'e-4 will land on the far side of the moon in December 2018. Credit: CNSA / CAS

In December of this year, the Chinese Space Agency (CNSA) will try to do something that no other space agency has attempted to do: land a probe on the far side of the moon. This is the latest salvo in a slow but sure effort from China to become a major space power, which also includes plans for an orbiting space station, more powerful rockets, a lunar base and even a Mars mission.

Do not think that China is still a major space power? For the moment, it has had only sporadic success, but China may well become just as important as NASA.

The mission Chang'e-4

The CNSA will attempt to land its Chang'e-4 on the other side of the moon, but we are not talking here about the dark side of the moon – there is no such place. The Moon is securely locked on Earth, so it turns only once during its 29 days in orbit. This means that we only see one side of the moon, but the other is illuminated by the sun. However, the farthest part has never been landed. A fully robotic mission, Chang'e-4 will attempt to land in the crater Von Karman of the Moon, an impact crater located in the southern hemisphere of the hidden face of the Moon.

"It's a bold plan," says Brian Harvey, space analyst and author of China in Space: The Great Leap Forward. "If it succeeds and I put a 50-50 chance, China will have done something spectacular against the other space powers. There are many risks involved.

The Chang e-4 mission has already begun. One of the problems with the proposed landing is that it is impossible to send radio signals directly from the other side of the Moon to the Earth. In May of this year, the CNSA launched a satellite that went into orbit beyond the moon. line of sight to the Earth, so that it can relay radio signals to and from the lander. It will also broadcast live broadcasts on television around the world.

The mission Chang'e-5

However, China has much bigger projects. Next year, he plans to complete a "return to the moon" mission using the same system that NASA used during its Apollo mission to return lunar rocks to Earth. "The lunar module will fly to the lunar orbit and dock with the control module and return to Earth," says Harvey. "It means that he can bring back a larger sample and that he can also land anywhere on the Moon that he wishes."

The main target is Mons Rümker northwest of the Moon. If it succeeds, China will have its own lunar rock, becoming the third country to have after the United States and Russia.

The long Chinese rocket of March 9

Much will depend on China's rocket program. A malfunction in its Long March 5 rocket caused an explosion in July 2017, but China plans to launch a much more powerful ultra-heavy-lift rocket called Long March 9 (LM9). Scheduled to start flying in 2028, LM9 will be a beast.

"The payload that the LM9 could carry on the moon is about 50 metric tons," says Harvey. "The Saturn V was 40 metric tons, so we're looking at something that's slightly larger." The Saturn V was used by NASA in the Apollo program in the 1960s and 1970s.

China's plans for a lunar base and Mars

It is also planned to place astronauts on the lunar surface. "The first crewed lunar landing is scheduled for 2030, but it's not yet an approved government project," says Harvey, adding that it's important to make a distinction between what Chinese scientists would like to do – a lunar landing in 2030 2040, and a landing of Mars in 2050 – and what is approved by the Chinese government.

"China's first lunar expedition might not stay very long – maybe only a few days or a week – but China does not intend to make Apollo-style expeditions for three or four days," says Harvey. . He thinks that they will quickly build a colony on the lunar surface, possibly using a combination of rigid, inflatable and 3D-built modules for housing, laboratory and support, as well as tunnels between them . The initial plans presented in 2017 provided for space between three and six astronauts.

The next Chinese space station

The first Chinese space station, Tiangong-1, burned in the Earth's atmosphere in April 2018, but plans to launch another one. Harvey explains: "The first module of its manned space station, the Tianhe, will be launched next year, with two more scientific modules to follow, and will then begin a series of manned launches, with China sending three astronauts every six months.

The United States prohibits Chinese astronauts from visiting the ISS. However, there is a reasonable chance that the Chinese space station will indeed become the "new" ISS. "The ISS may not be there after 2024, and the Chinese space station will continue flying in the 2030s," says Harvey.

After all, Tianhe is not a top secret project of China. European astronauts Samantha Cristoforetti and Matthias Maurer have already trained in China for a flight there. However, comparing Tianhe with the ISS would be silly; it will be much more like MIR, the Russian rudimentary space station of the 1980s and 1990s.

Is the Chinese space program essentially military?

The Chinese space program is often considered by the American media as essentially military. "I do not see any evidence of that," says Harvey, who insists that the problem with US-China relations is that Congress forbids any collaboration between them. "Most national space programs have a military component, but they are by far the most important in the United States, and generally weak in Russia and China."

Harvey estimates that military elements account for about 15 to 20 percent of the Chinese space program, which is not huge, totaling some $ 4.9 billion against $ 35.9 billion, $ 5.7 billion. from the European Space Agency (ESA) and 3.2 billion from Russia. According to Euroconsult, bn, Japan has $ 3 billion and India $ 1 billion.

Will the CNSA challenge NASA or the Russian space agency ROSCOSMOS for the dominance of space technology? Harvey calls China's space program "extremely economic" and emphasizes that it focuses only on certain areas. "Everything precedes at a slow pace, but make no mistake," he warns. "In the end, he will catch up with many other countries."

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