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Researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder have established scientific support for the widely accepted wisdom that rising temperatures can cause problems on the streets.
The close examination of monthly FBI violent crime and property crime data, reported by 16,000 law enforcement agencies in the United States, supported a seemingly simple concept: when the weather is good, people are more likely to go out and interact – and cause problems. This dynamic has been dubbed the theory of routine activities.
The "temperature-aggression" hypothesis is a second theory of partners, according to which people act more aggressively in very hot weather.
Of the two researchers, the correlation cited in the Routine Activity Theory seems stronger, suggesting that more enjoyable winter days, which can be expected with the continued onset of climate change, could be a problem for the military forces. of order – with all the environmental effects that already preoccupy the people who follow the evolution of the climatic dynamics of our planet.
"You need a motivated offender, a person who is looking to commit the crime and you need a potential victim, as well as a lack of guardian – somebody for prevent crime. a police officer is the simplest example, "said Ryan Harp, PhD candidate at the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences of Boulder University, also affiliated with the Cooperative Research Institute. in environmental sciences.
"What we think is that during the winter months, people tend to stay indoors and avoid bad weather. But if you have a good weather, people are more likely to leave their homes and you are more likely that these three things come together … you just increase the chance that these three things can converge.
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