Crisis in Sri Lanka: the house of cards in the Indian Ocean

What is happening now in Sri Lanka is somewhere between House of Cards, Game of Thrones and Shakespeare's darkest Roman plays. It is about a man who betrayed his leader to bring him back to power, a plot of presumed assassination, and two men who claim a large white mansion, symbol of political power.

Here is what you need to know about the constitutional crisis in this island country,

What triggered this crisis?

It's complicated because there have been a lot of twists and turns.

Last week, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena shocked the nation by sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, dissolving the government and suspending parliament. He said that they had not started.

The president – which many perceive as the biggest surprise – then named Mahinda Rajapaksa, the man he beat in the 2015 presidential election as the new prime minister.

Mr. Rajapaksa led Sri Lanka for a crucial period between 2005 and 2015 and oversaw the controversial end of the deadly decades-long civil war in the country. His family dominated Sri Lanka while he was at the helm – and members of his entourage were accused of corruption, war crimes and debts in the country with billions of dollars of debts to China.

The family denies wrongdoing and remains popular, especially in rural areas. But India, the EU and the United States are not happy to see his return, correspondents said.

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To fully understand the magnitude of this political shift in the President of Sri Lanka, you must return to the 2015 elections. Mr. Sirisena was accused of betraying Mr. Rajapaksa because, even though they belonged to the same political party, he had teamed up with Ranil Wickremesinghe to defeat him.

Now this relationship has turned sour and Mr Sirisena has found his former ally turned rival.

So, Rajapaksa took office?

Not exactly. Mr. Wickremesinghe – the man who was fired – refuses to leave Temple Trees, the colonial-era bungalow that is the official residence of the prime minister.

He says that what the president has done is unconstitutional and that he remains the real prime minister. He wants the Parliament to be called so that members can vote on the issue.

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But Sirisena has not yet allowed this to happen – and analysts say it's because he knows that there is not yet a majority likely to support Mr Rajapaksa as Prime Minister. The Sirisena-Rajapaksa alliance, however, is trying to hand Wickremesinghehealist with him alongside ministries and other concessions.

However, the workings of the government have not stopped turning in the middle of this crisis – Mr. Rajapaksa began his work and was sworn in front of a cabinet. He, not Mr. Wickremesinghe, is listed as Prime Minister on the government's official website.

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Why are people worried?

The situation is tense and there has already been a deadly clash.

Wickremesinghe's supporters formed a protective crowd at Temple Trees – and Buddhist monks were also called to sing prayers to dissuade the police from using force to remove the sacked prime minister.

A parliamentary vote could defuse the crisis – but even then, supporters of the losing party could go down on the street angrily.

What are the roots of the saga?

It depends on who you are talking to.

In a long speech to the nation this weekend, President Sirisena said tensions have escalated between him and his prime minister for years. He called Mr. Wickremesinghe both arrogant and stubborn.

He also linked to a controversial sale of central bank bonds, which would have resulted in the loss of 11 billion Sri Lankan rupees ($ 65 million, £ 50 million). The president also alleged that a minister had participated in a conspiracy to kill him and that the police had obstructed an investigation.

However, if you discussed with Mr Wickremesinghe, he would say that the roots of this crisis lie entirely in what he regards as the illegitimate actions of Mr Sirisena.

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It is true that many analysts say that the coalition government formed by the two was about to collapse because of the breakdown of the relationship.

But the way it happened has taken a lot of people by surprise.

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EPA

So is it even legal?

A number of constitutional experts have stated that the dismissal of Mr. Wickremesinghe was not legal. Under the constitution, as amended three years ago, the president does not have the power to dismiss the prime minister, said constitutionalist Nihal Jayawickrama.

In fact, under the 19th Amendment, almost all of the executive powers of the president have been removed, he said. This amendment was presented by MM. Sirisena and Wickremesinghe.

According to Jayawickrama, "only the Parliament can constitutionally dismiss a prime minister".

A provision states that the person most likely to win the confidence of parliament should be appointed prime minister, but Mr Wickremesinghe is the leader of the largest party and easily got a motion of censure earlier this year.

The president cited part of the constitution that allowed him to appoint a prime minister as the basis for the dismissal of Wickremesinghe – but some constitutionalists questioned the validity of this argument.

What is the context?

Sri Lanka is a country that has sunk for decades in a brutal and bloody civil war between the government and the separatists Tamil Tigers, which ended with accusations of human rights atrocities committed by both camps. Mahinda Rajapaksa was at the helm when many defendants were accused by the government of killing thousands of civilians in a thin strip of land at the end of the war – the army has always denied this.

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Eventually, the country became a top tourist destination and achieved some semblance of stability – but this unprecedented crisis puts that reputation at risk.

The EU has already threatened to put an end to Sri Lanka's lucrative duty-free access to the world's largest single market if it abandons its human rights and human rights commitments. of reconciliation between the majority of Sinhalese and Tamil communities.