Dallas Keuchel, beaten 2-1 in the ALCS, confident after the loss

Asked about a first run that saw the Boston Red Sox score three consecutive shots to start the game and open a two-run quick lead, Keuchel credited his opponents but stopped well before giving in to the first mistakes.

"I did the launches I wanted and I'm just unhappy with the placement," said the southpaw. "There was not a single bullet hit hard in the first inning above 91 mph – it's just bad luck."

Keuchel is a baseball pitcher, and the three hits of the Red Sox in question came on land balls that found holes in the defense of the infield behind him. His comments, along with data, reflect the growing analytical trend in Major League Baseball in 2018 and nowhere more evident than in the Houston clubhouse.

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These Astros, both organizational and granular, include the randomness that dominates baseball in individual matches and short series after the season.

That's why these Astros must recognize the most important point about the ALCS 2018, the Red Sox now leading two games to one: it is by no means finished.

The results of the next two, three or four games will dictate the stories we write retrospectively, and if the Red Sox seize the next pair to finish Houston, we will celebrate how they bounced back after losing the first set. If the Astros win three games and one line from Wednesday's fourth game, we'll be resilient and determined, even though the Red Sox, as major baseball players, are undoubtedly resilient and determined.

"From now on, it's a coin," Keuchel said. "From the first match, it was a coin. These are two teams of 100 wins. You wait for fireworks from time to time. You can not really keep a powerful attack too long, so I'm waiting for you to be back in the thick of things tomorrow. "

Coin analogies are well suited to the MLB playoffs. Although two winning teams of more than 100 times are not equal, a series of seven baseball games is never enough to conclusively determine, but simply an indication of the team that has managed to outperform its opponents in these seven games.

But as the Astros are now part of this series, it's not really a coin that is moving forward. It's a series of up to four coin throws and the Red Sox have to hit their heads twice before the tail gets up three times.

In the history of the Major League Baseball, there were 136 playoff series in which a club had won 2 to 1 after the third game. The team with the start 2-1 continued to take the series 71% of the time. Teams with a 2-1 lead and home field advantage in the set, as the Red Sox have won, win 75% of the time.

The story therefore suggests that Astros are as likely to reach the World Series as a coin that will land twice in a row on the tail. This is not the most likely result, but it is not unfathomable. The 2016 Chicago Cubs came back from a 2-1 deficit in the NLCS and a 3-1 deficit in the World Series. The 2014 San Francisco Giants came back 2-1 to win the World Series. The 2013 Red Sox have come down 2-1 to win this world series.

Whether or not they get it – and it seems like they succeed – the task of the Astros is obviously not to throw coins, but to win baseball games. The probabilities for hit balls show Keuchel that, most often, ground players find gloves, but the odds for a series do not allow the Astros to understand the pitch of the Red Sox.

That's why you hear people like Keuchel focus on the performance rather than the results: what just happened does not matter anymore. All you can control is what you do in the next room.

"This team is doing a good job worrying about the next pitch," said third baseman Alex Bregman. "That's really what makes baseball: worrying about the next field – it's the most important terrain. The first throw of tomorrow's game is the most important pitch of our season. When it is finished, we move to the second. Baseball is a game based on failure. You must have a short memory. The guys at this club are doing well to understand that.

"We believe that if we give ourselves opportunities, we will find that success," said manager A.J. Hinch. "It takes four wins to win this series. They know it, we know it. We are 2-1. But this is Wednesday's game (Wednesday). "

The fourth match starts at 20:39. AND at Minute Maid Park.